000
AXNT20 KNHC 241744
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE AT 
8N13W TO 2N20W TO 1N26W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 1N26W TO 2N30W 
TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 3S40W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 15W-21W...AND FROM 1N-3N 
BETWEEN 28W-32W.   
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                                

AS OF 1500 UTC A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE 
AT 31N85W TO S OF MATAMOROS MEXICO AT 25N98W MPVING SE. A 
PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 31N84W 
TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE 
AT 20N94W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PREFRONTAL ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF N OF 27N E OF 84W. 
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF S TEXAS AND 
NE MEXICO FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 95W-100W. 20-30 KT N WIND IS N OF 
THE COLD FRONT. ALSO OF NOTE...20 KT S WIND IS OVER THE STRAITS 
OF FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS OVER THE NW GULF SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONTAL 
FEATURES. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF EXCEPT OVER 
N FLORIDA. A 110-130 KT JETSTREAM IS ALSO OVER THE NW GULF. 
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME MORE 
ZONAL WITH THE JETSTREAM OVER THE ENTIRE N GULF. ALSO EXPECT IN 
24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA TO THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH SHOWERS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                            

A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 7N70W AND A 1019 
MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS 
NEAR 24N62W. THE RESULTANT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS 
PRODUCING 10-20 KT EASTERLY TRADEWINDS E OF 80W...AND 10-25 KT 
SE TO S WINDS W OF 80W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS WITH SOME 
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR TRINIDAD. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE AREA EXCEPT OVER THE SOUTHERN 
WINDWARD ISLANDS WHERE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS 
ARE NOTED. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR...A SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
TO BE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. ALSO EXPECT PREFRONTAL SHOWERS TO BE 
OVER W CUBA...THE NW CARIBBEAN TO INCLUDE THE GULF OF 
HONDURAS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ALSO EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE 
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COASTS OF N COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               

PREFRONTAL SHOWERS ARE OFF THE COAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO 
79W. A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 24N62W 
PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC FROM 32N38W TO 21N52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 
NM E OF THE FRONT. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 
29N24W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS 
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 24N BETWEEN 35W-50W SUPPORTING 
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD 
FRONT TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N75W TO THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT TO 
CONTINUE TO MOVE E TO 32N30W WITH SHOWERS.   

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA