000 AXNT20 KNHC 241119 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W CONTINUING ALONG 6N17W 2N21W TO 2N25W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N33W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 38W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E OF 9W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 13W-22W...AND FROM 1N- 4N BETWEEN 30W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N ALABAMA ACROSS SE GEORGIA INTO THE W ATLC. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WATERS WITH THE AXIS ALONG 88W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXTENDING OVER THE FAR NW GULF FROM LOUISIANA AND TEXAS SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE NW GULF AT 24/0900 UTC OVER LOUISIANA FROM 29N91W TO 27N94. A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT IS STILL INLAND OVER TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE DISSIPATING FRONT EXTENDING FROM FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR FORT WALTON BEACH TO 25N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHES OF FOG ARE BEING REPORTED W OF A LINE FROM NEAR FORT WALTON BEACH FLORIDA FROM 27N92W TO 23N92W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE GULF LATER TODAY REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO VERACRUZ LATE TONIGHT THEN CLEAR OF THE GULF MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE S ATLC AND THE DEEP TROPICS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO CENTRAL AMERICA AND NE NICARAGUA. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN BUT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 15N E OF 63W TO ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN REMARKABLY CLEAR THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E-SE ACROSS W ATLC PRODUCING FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO STRONG S TO SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN INCLUDING GULF OF HONDURAS AND YUCATAN CHANNEL THROUGH TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL ENTER YUCATAN CHANNEL MON EVENING AND STALL FROM E CUBA TO S BELIZE WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ACROSS SE GEORGIA INTO THE W ATLC TO NEAR 28N73W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W ATLC FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 65W-75W. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT IS MEANDERING ALONG 31N W OF 75W TO INLAND OVER THESE GEORGIA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE FRONT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC WITH A 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH BETWEEN BERMUDA AND PUERTO RICO NEAR 26N62W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 26N BETWEEN 38W-55W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N40W AND CONTINUES ALONG 27N46W TO 23N51W AND DISSIPATING TO 21N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 28N26W GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. W ATLC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT E-SE THROUGH TODAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER W ATLC TONIGHT AND EXTEND FROM 32N68W TO W CUBA LATE MON AND FROM 32N51W TO E CUBA LATE TUE THEN STALL WED THEN MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW