000 AXNT20 KNHC 232342 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT MAR 23 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 03N20W TO 02N28W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N28W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 35W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N BETWEEN 01W-05W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-03N BETWEEN 13W-17W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH AS AN APPROACHING TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING...A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST TO NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS NEAR 28N97W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FAR NE GULF WATERS N OF 28N E OF 86W. OVER THE NW GULF...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED AS A 1004 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N96W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S-SW TO 24N98W AND REMAINS PRECIPITATION-FREE AND A WEAK WIND SHIFT ABOUT THE AXIS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE SLOWLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS STRONGER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS. BY EARLY SUNDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF BRINGING STRONG N-NW WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KT...SPREADING EAST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... DRY AND STABLE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N74W CONTINUES TO KEEP CONDITIONS RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE BASIN THIS EVENING. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO FAN OUT OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT...HOWEVER ELSEWHERE...SKIES REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR. TRADES PERSIST E OF 80W MOSTLY IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED S OF 14N BETWEEN 70W-76W IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WHERE THEREAFTER A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRAPE ACROSS EASTERN CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN USHERING IN N-NE WINDS LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 55W...A STATIONARY FRONT LIES ACROSS THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC FROM 32N78W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR JACKSONVILLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT N OF 28N W OF 74W... INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N69W. A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN NORTH ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N45W. THE FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 22N60W WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EAST AND 90 NM WEST OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N33W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN