000
AXNT20 KNHC 231125
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAR 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 10N14W CONTINUING ALONG 5N20W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR 
NEAR 29W. THE ITCZ IS COMPLETELY S OF THE EQUATOR. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE SW COAST OF 
AFRICA TO S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 13W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                                
A WEAK SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF 
EXTENDING FROM 26N87W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N90W. 
WITH NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT N OF 26N. AT THE SURFACE THE 
FRONT HAS BECOME STATIONARY EXTENDING AT 23/0900 UTC FROM ACROSS 
FLORIDA INTO THE GULF BETWEEN TAMPA AND CEDAR KEY THEN ALONG 
29N87W TO OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE N OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST AND N 
OF 27N E OF 85W TO INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SOUTHEAST 
SURFACE FLOW IS BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF MAINLY N OF 25N W OF 92W. THIS IS 
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS 
MORNING. FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL 
REACH NW GULF SAT NIGHT AND EXTEND FROM FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 
CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO LATE SUN THEN REACH FROM STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                             
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM THE S ATLC AND THE DEEP TROPICS ACROSS THE 
WINDWARD ISLANDS TO CENTRAL AMERICA AND SE NICARAGUA. THE UPPER 
RIDGE IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN 
BUT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
DO REMAIN INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND 
REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN THIS 
MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC WILL CONTINUE TO 
SHIFT E-SE ACROSS THROUGH SUN AND BRING FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE FRESH TO STRONG S TO SE WINDS DEVELOPING 
IN NW CARIBBEAN INCLUDING GULF OF HONDURAS AND YUCATAN CHANNEL. 
WINDS WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE MOST OF BASIN MON THROUGH WED AS 
NEW COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY S ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL TUE THEN 
STALLS FROM E CUBA TO BELIZE LATE WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                              
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NW ATLC N OF 27N W OF 55W 
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N49W 
AND CONTINUES ALONG 24N56W TO 21N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM E OF THE 
FRONT N OF 25N. A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT IS N OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA. A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH IS TO THE W OF THE FRONT NEAR 27N71W. 
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND E 
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 29N35W GIVING THE REMAINDER 
OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL 
CONTINUE TO MOVE E OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE 
WILL SHIFT E-SE THROUGH SUN IN WAKE OF FRONT. THE NEXT COLD 
FRONT WILL ENTER W ATLC LATE SUN WITH FRONT REACHING THROUGH 
32N61W 27N65W TO NW CUBA LATE TUE. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW