000
AXNT20 KNHC 230525
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAR 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 13N17W CONTINUING ALONG 6N20W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR 
NEAR 30W. THE ITCZ IS COMPLETELY S OF THE EQUATOR. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N E 
OF 5W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR 
BETWEEN 10W-14W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                                
A WEAK SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF  
EXTENDING FROM 26N92W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W WITH 
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT N OF 26N. AT THE SURFACE A WARM 
FRONT IS RETREATING N OVER THE N GULF AT 23/0300 UTC EXTENDING 
FROM ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF NEAR TAMPA ALONG 28N86W THEN 
OVER SE LOUISIANA JUST N OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE FRONT E 
OF 85W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS NE OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER 
FLORIDA AND THE N GULF COAST. SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW IS BANKING 
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF 
N OF 23N W OF 90W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF 
WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NE 
THROUGH SAT. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH NW GULF SAT NIGHT AND 
EXTEND FROM FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO LATE 
SUN THEN REACH FROM STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO CENTRAL BAY OF 
CAMPECHE BY LATE MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                             
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM THE S ATLC AND THE DEEP TROPICS ACROSS THE 
WINDWARD ISLANDS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR BELIZE. THE 
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE ISLANDS 
OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA ARE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE. A WEAK 
PRESSURE PATTERN AND REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES COVER THE ENTIRE 
BASIN TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC WILL 
CONTINUE TO SHIFT E-SE ACROSS THROUGH SUN AND BRING FRESH TRADE 
WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE FRESH TO STRONG S TO SE 
WINDS DEVELOP IN NW CARIBBEAN INCLUDING GULF OF HONDURAS AND 
YUCATAN CHANNEL. WINDS WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE MOST OF BASIN MON 
THROUGH WED AS NEW COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY S ACROSS YUCATAN 
CHANNEL TUE THEN STALLS FROM E CUBA TO BELIZE LATE WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                              
THE WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM 28N78W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA 
NEAR MELBOURNE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD UPPER TROUGH 
COVERS THE NW ATLC N OF 27N W OF 55W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT 
THAT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N52W AND CONTINUES ALONG 
25N58W TO 21N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE ENTIRE FRONT. A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT 
EXTENDS THROUGH 32N64W TO 31N68W. A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH IS TO THE 
W OF THE FRONTS NEAR 27N73W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE 
CENTRAL AND E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 29N38W GIVING 
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. LEADING W ATLC 
COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SAT. W ATLC 
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E-SE THROUGH SUN IN WAKE OF FRONT. THE 
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER W ATLC LATE SUN WITH FRONT REACHING 
THROUGH 32N61W 27N65W TO NW CUBA LATE TUE. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW