000 AXNT20 KNHC 221126 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI MAR 22 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 6N16W 2N23W AND 1N29W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 1N29W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 32W...TO 1S36W TO 1S40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 1N TO THE AFRICA COAST BETWEEN 3W AND 7W... AND FROM 1S TO 5N BETWEEN 18W AND 25W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 10N95W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 16N97W TO 25N95W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. SEPARATE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY- TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW MERGES WITH THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MUCH OF THE RESULTING WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA IS NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY. A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N82W IN FLORIDA. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORMING INLAND...COVERING THE AREA FROM MEXICO TO TEXAS AND INCLUDING LOUISIANA. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 90W WITH THE DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS RANGING FROM 2200 FEET TO 5500 FEET COVER THE AREA. THE ICAO STATIONS KGVX AND KMZG THAT ARE OFF THE TEXAS COAST ARE REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES AND FOG. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING IN PORT ISABEL. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS CONTINUE FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS TO THE BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR AREA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE GULF COAST AREAS FOR MOST OF LOUISIANA...BECOMING MIDDLE LEVEL CEILINGS FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA COAST FROM NAPLES TO BROOKSVILLE. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS BETWEEN 84W AND 90W. FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N65W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 28N60W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 27N64W 25N66W 21N70W...JUST AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N74W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 20N74W TO 22N80W IN SOUTHERN COASTAL CUBA...TO 22N83W AND TO 22N87W AT THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 32N BETWEEN 50W AND 54W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 47W AND 57W...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 58W AND 71W INCLUDING TO THE NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 32N TO THE WEST OF 70W...INCLUDING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND TO THE EAST OF 85W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES NORTHWARD FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 10N90W...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA JUST OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS...CURVING TOWARD JAMAICA AND BEYOND. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA...BECOMING PART OF THE LARGER-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO- WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 17N. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...ACROSS GUATEMALA...INTO WESTERN HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 12 HOURS AGO HAS DISSIPATED. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH...NORTHEAST... AND EAST OF THE LINE 20N84W 16N77W 15N75W 13N70W... IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COLOMBIA ALONG 8N75W BEYOND 7N81W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE WESTERN PANAMA COAST FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 82W AND 83W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR THE 24 HOUR FORECAST FOR 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 84W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N11W...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 26N20W. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 26N20W TO 21N32W. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N8W 24N20W 20N34W 24N46W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N39W TO 24N47W AND 20N60W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN THE 32N11W 21N32W FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE 32N58W 20N74W COLD FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT 31N60W TO 22N72W TO 21N76W. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 50W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 76W. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE FOUND TO THE NORTH OF 26N WITHIN 180 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 53W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 16 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 50W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT