000 AXNT20 KNHC 220605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI MAR 22 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 6N16W 3N20W AND 2N26W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N26W TO 1N36W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 41W... INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 17W AND 26W. SCATTERED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 1N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 13N94W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...TO 24N97W IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SEPARATE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW MERGES WITH THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MUCH OF THE RESULTING WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA IS NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY. A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N87W TO THE SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORMING INLAND...COVERING THE AREA FROM MEXICO TO TEXAS AND INCLUDING LOUISIANA. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 90W WITH THE DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS RANGING FROM 2900 FEET TO 4900 FEET COVER THE AREA. THE ICAO STATION KMZG THAT IS OFF THE TEXAS COAST IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES AND FOG. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING IN PORT ISABEL. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS CONTINUE FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS TO THE BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR AREA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE GULF COAST AREAS FOR MOST OF LOUISIANA...BECOMING MIDDLE LEVEL CEILINGS FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO FLORIDA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. CLEAR SKIES ARE ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NAPLES TO BROOKSVILLE. PARTLY CLOUDY MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE REST OF THE FLORIDA GULF COASTAL PLAINS FROM PERRY WESTWARD. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 36 HOUR FORECAST OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 26N BETWEEN 84W AND 90W. FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N65W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 28N60W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO 26N67W 23N70W...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TO 22N77W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 22N77W TO 23N83W IN CUBA...TO 22N88W AT THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ABOUT 150 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 25N TO 32N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 53W AND 57W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W... TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 59W AND 61W...FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 67W...AND TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W 27N70W 27N80W. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND THE 83W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES NORTHWARD FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 10N90W...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA JUST OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS...CURVING TOWARD JAMAICA AND BEYOND. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA...BECOMING PART OF THE LARGER-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO- WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 17N. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...ACROSS GUATEMALA... TOWARD HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WAS OCCURRING FROM NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA TO SOUTHWESTERN HONDURAS... TO THE SOUTHERN GUATEMALA...AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AT 21/2115 UTC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN HONDURAS FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 86W AND 87W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH...NORTHEAST...AND EAST OF THE LINE 18N84W 16N74W 13N70W...IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COLOMBIA ALONG 8N75W TO 9N79W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 8N82W IN PANAMA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN PANAMA FROM 8N TO 9N WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 82W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR THE 24 HOUR FORECAST FOR 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 84W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH SUPPORTS A 32N14W 26N21W 23N32W COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N41W TO 14N56W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT 31N62W TO 22N70W TO 21N76W AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH 31N59W TO 24N67W...AND RELATED 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 12 FEET. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 40W AND 53W. EXPECT ALSO TO THE NORTH OF 19N TO THE EAST OF 50W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT IN NW SWELL...HIGHEST NE PART. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT