000
AXNT20 KNHC 211752
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAR 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO 
5N17W TO 3N25W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N25W TO 3N40W TO THE 
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S48W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 2S-5N BETWEEN 6W-15W. 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY N OF THE ITCZ 
FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 22W-47W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER W TENNESSEE 
NEAR 36N89W PRODUCING SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO. 
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE INLAND OVER S TEXAS AND NE MEXICO WHILE 
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE N GULF. THE TAIL END OF A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA NEAR 23N80W TO THE SW GULF 
AT 22N92W TO S OF TUXPAN MEXICO AT 21N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE FRONT. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE N 
OF THE FRONT...AND 10 KT S WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS MOSTLY WNW WINDS ARE NOTED. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS 
OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS S OF 27N. 
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME ZONAL. 
ALSO EXPECT FOR THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE AND SOUTHERLY 
SURFACE RETURN FLOW TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF. 
 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
                                                 
A 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 6N70W. A 
RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA PRODUCING 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND 
PUERTO RICO. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD 
ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED WITH 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED 
SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
 
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N67W TO THE CENTRAL 
BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W TO W CUBA NEAR 23N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. A 1024 MB 
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N44W. A COLD 
FRONT IS FURTHER E OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N19W TO 25N30W AND 
DISSIPATING TO 24N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE 
FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR BOTH COLD FRONTS TO MOVE E WITH 
SHOWERS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FRONT AND CONVECTION OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC FRONT BETWEEN 48W-55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA