000 AXNT20 KNHC 200604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED MAR 20 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO 10N16W 6N17W AND 4N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N20W TO 1N28W 1N38W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 41W... TO 3S47W IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 100 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT STARTS AT 2S44W AND CONTINUES TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 45W TO 1N48W AND 2N51W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 1N TO THE EAST OF 5W AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1S BETWEEN 10W AND 12W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THIS WIND REGIME IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 32N72W 24N77W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THAT TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO 28N80W...CUTTING ACROSS FLORIDA ALONG 28N TO 28N82W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM FLORIDA 28N82W TO 29N85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 25N90W IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO 25N93W... 26N96W AND 25N97W ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 84W AND 87W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES RANGING FROM 4 TO 5 MILES WITH FOG ARE ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF 91W. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND 2 MILES VISIBILITY AND FOG ARE REPORTED AT THE ICAO STATION KCRH...AND 4 MILES VISIBILITY WITH FOG AT THE ICAO STATION KECH. THE REST OF THE PLATFORMS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 91W AND 95W ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THAT RANGE FROM 5 MILES TO 10 MILES. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THAT RANGE FROM 2.5 MILES AND FOG AT THE ICAO STATION KGVX AND TO 5 MILES AT THE ICAO STATION KMZG ARE REPORTED AT THE PLATFORMS THAT ARE ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. FAIR SKIES WITH PATCHES OF LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE FLORIDA COASTAL PLAINS FROM APALACHICOLA WESTWARD...FAIR SKIES WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE REST OF THE FLORIDA COASTAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 12 HOUR FORECAST OF A NEW COLD FRONT ALONG 29N82W 29N89W 28N97W...EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT TO THE WEST OF 89W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 12N79W SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO CUBA NEAR 22N80W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 26N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN CUBA NEAR 22N79W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR TO 18N80W TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA...TO 13N81W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN GUATEMALA FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 89W AND 90W. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MEXICO...EVENTUALLY TO GUATEMALA AND THE WESTERN HALF OF HONDURAS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH...NORTHEAST...AND EAST OF THE LINE 18N85W 17N80W 17N73W 15N71W 14N67W 11N63W...IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N74W IN COLOMBIA TO 11N78W...INTO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA NEAR 11N84W... ACROSS SOUTHERN NICARAGUA...AND BEYOND 11N86W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 75W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO 29N75W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W JUST TO THE EAST OF ANDROS ISLAND. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO 28N80W...CUTTING ACROSS FLORIDA ALONG 28N TO 28N82W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM FLORIDA 28N82W TO 29N85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 25N90W IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO 25N93W... 26N96W AND 25N97W ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 210 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W 29N66W 26N71W...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N71W 22N77W ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 12N79W SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO CUBA NEAR 22N80W. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 20N71W 26N65W BEYOND 32N62W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 24N44W AND 15N43W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO 31N41W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AT 31N41W AND IT CONTINUES TO 29N50W AND 31N57W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N57W BEYOND 32N58W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N27W 26N40W 26N50W BEYOND 32N61W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N2W ALONG ALGERIA/MOROCCO BORDER TO 28N10W AND THE CANARY ISLANDS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N13W TO 31N17W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 18W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 28N20W 26N36W...TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N56W...TO 27N62W... AND 26N72W...TO A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN CUBA NEAR 22N79W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR TO 18N80W TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA...TO 13N81W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOTS OR LESS WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF 42W. THE 36 HOUR FORECAST INCLUDES A 31N69W 25N80W COLD FRONT. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 62W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT