000
AXNT20 KNHC 191727
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAR 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 
7N12W TO 4N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N16W TO 1N30W TO THE 
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 4S38W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 2N-17N BETWEEN 15W-30W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO... 

AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA 
TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N90W TO LA PESCA MEXICO 
NEAR 24N98W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NE 
GULF FROM 28N-29N BETWEEN 83W-85W. 15-20 KT NE WINDS ARE N OF 
THE FRONT. 10-15 KT SE WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER 
THE N GULF N OF 27N. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH IS 
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF...AND S FLORIDA 
FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 80W-85W. IN CONTRAST STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS W 
OF 85W WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE 
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO N OF TAMPICO MEXICO. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
                                                 
A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 7N74W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA S OF 11N. ELSEWHERE... 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER W CUBA W OF 80W DUE TO UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE. 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN 
SEA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. 
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE 
WINDWARD ISLANDS. OTHERWISE EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
 
A LARGE 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 
27N55W. A COLD FRONT IS FURTHER N FROM 32N44W TO 31N50W TO 
32N60W MOVING ESE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE 
FGRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE N 
BAHAMAS N OF 0F 25N W OF 70W AGAIN DUE TO UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 
32N32W TO 28N50W WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS 
OVER THE W ATLANTIC. 
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA