000 AXNT20 KNHC 162336 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT MAR 16 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N13W AND CONTINUES TO 6N16W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 3N24W 5N39W 3N45W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 25W-32W WITH CLUSTERS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 3N17W TO 2N24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN DOMINATES THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE TEXAS COAST GIVING THE GULF DOMINATE SW FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER LOW IS INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 24N100W ENHANCING THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE W GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE STRAY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE OVER THE W GULF FROM 24N-29N W OF 90W AND FROM 19N-24N W OF 96W. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR GALVESTON. THIS IS LEAVING THE E GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE TEXAS COAST MON NIGHT AND EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TUE. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND STALL TUE NIGHT THEN LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH OFF THE COAST OF BRAZIL SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N51W. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO NEAR 16N72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ESTABLISHED FROM SW HAITI INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 12N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM NW OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 82W-86W. THE COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN DOMINATES THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC S OF 26N. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH E OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 26N71W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N42W AND EXTENDS ALONG 24N50W 21N58W THEN INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N16W ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 15N19W THEN INTO THE TROPICS TO 5N27W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC OVER THE MADEIRA ISLANDS THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N17W TO 23N24W. THIS FRONT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY AIR THUS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE W ATLC TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUE E THROUGH WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW