000
AXNT20 KNHC 161753
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT MAR 16 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W TO 
5N13W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N13W TO 3N30W TO 2N40W TO THE 
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S48W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 12W-29W...AND FROM 0N-5N BETWEEN 34W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...                                           

A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W. 10-15 
KT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WITH 
FAIR WEATHER. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE ENTIRE AREA IS VOID OF 
PRECIPITATION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER 
THE GULF. A 70-90 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE S GULF. EXPECT...IN 
24 HOURS FOR THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO BE FROM THE SW. ALSO 
EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE RETURN FLOW TO CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED 
SHOWERS OVER THE NE GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 
20N63W AND EXTENDS TO E HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N68W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONT. A SHEARLINE CONTINUES  
FROM E HISPANIOLA TO NICARAGUA ALONG 19N68W 16N77W 13N83W. 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
120 NM N OF THE SHEARLINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER 
BELIZE...HONDURAS...THE GULF OF HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...E 
PANAMA...N COLOMBIA...AND NW VENEZUELA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 60W. 
EXPECT...IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SHEARLINE TO DISSIPATE. ALSO EXPECT 
TRADEWINDS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN... 
AND THE S CARIBBEAN.
 
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W. A COLD FRONT 
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N46W TO 21N60W TO HISPANIOLA 
NEAR 19N68W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONT. A 994 MB LOW IS OVER 
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 36N24W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 
30N20W TO 24N26W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE 
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 40W-65W. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 40W. EXPECT OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR BOTH COLD FRONTS TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA