000 AXNT20 KNHC 141226 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU MAR 14 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUBH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 10N18W...TO 7N19W AND 3N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N20W TO 1N22W 2N25W AND 1N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 36W... TO 2S40W...AND INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 6S43W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS TO THE WEST OF 6W AND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF 8N14W 5N22W 2N36W. THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE BASE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN INLAND PASSES THROUGH 31N81W...AND IT REACHES THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS NEAR 28N89W. A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO 28N70W IN THE BAHAMAS...TO CUBA NEAR 22N78W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR 22N78W AND IT CONTINUES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO 20N82W AND TO THE HONDURAS COAST NEAR 16N86W. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO...ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS... INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA OF THE BORDER OF THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE STORM- FORCE WINDS THAT ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE OBSERVED IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS IN MEXICO IN MATAMOROS... AND IN TEXAS IN BROWNSVILLE...PORT ISABEL...AND HARLINGEN. BROKEN LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED IN MEXICO IN REYNOSA...AND IN TEXAS IN MCALLEN...HARLINGEN...AND WESLACO. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED IN HEBBRONVILLE...AT THE KINGSVILLE NAS...IN PORT LAVACA...IN PALACIOS...AND IN ANGLETON/ LAKE JACKSON IN TEXAS. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES COVER THE REST OF THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. CLEAR SKIES ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS FROM TEXAS TO KEY WEST FLORIDA. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL DRILLING SITES THAT ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY ICAO STATION KGBK IS REPORTING A LOW CLOUD CEILING. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 86W. FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO 23N37W 18N39W 12N45W AND 7N53W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1002 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N42W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N33W TO 25N35W 19N40W AND 14N46W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 30W AND 38W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF 16N 23N37W 17N50W 15N60W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 73W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 66W/67W FROM 4N IN VENEZUELA TO 14N... CONTINUES TO 16N70W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 23N64W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND BEYOND 32N56W. RAINSHOWERS IN GENERAL ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF 83W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N73W AT THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER...10N76W... AND ALONG 10N...INTO AND BEYOND 10N84W IN COSTA RICA. POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA MAY BE OR MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 22N78W 16N85W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 66W/67W FROM 4N IN VENEZUELA TO 14N... CONTINUES TO 16N70W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 23N64W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND BEYOND 32N56W. A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N63W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN THE 31N33W 14N46W SURFACE TROUGH AND THE 32N67W 22N78W COLD FRONT. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N21W TO 20N27W...AND 10N30W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT... THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 31N37W TO A 1003 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N40W TO 16N44W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 13 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITHIN A 300 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE. EXPECT 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 65W. EXPECT 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 65W TO A LINE A LINE FROM 20N35W TO 07N50W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N68W TO 22N78W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF 77W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT AND TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT AND THE BAHAMAS TO 65W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT