000 AXNT20 KNHC 120605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EST TUE MAR 12 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N17W TO 11N18W 6N20W AND 4N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N22W...TO 2N30W 1N40W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 46W...TO 1S49W IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 6N TO THE EAST OF 50W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT IS INLAND...LEAVING ONLY THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE GULF WATERS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 25N79W TO 20N82W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W... TO 26N88W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 18N93W IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W IN THE GULF WATERS AND IN FLORIDA AND GEORGIA ALSO....AND WEAKENING TO ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 88W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH EAST TEXAS...THROUGH THE WATERS OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. FAIR SKIES ARE IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...EDINBURG IS REPORTING 5 MILES OF VISIBILITY AND HAZE. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES COVER THE REST OF THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. THE 1 TO 3 MILE VISIBILITY AND FOG IN PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI HAS CLEARED UP COMPARATIVELY SPEAKING... DURING THE LAST HOUR. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA BORDER. THE SKIES ARE CLEARING TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE BETWEEN TALLAHASSEE AND MARIANNA IN FLORIDA. HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING IN TALLAHASSEE ACCORDING TO THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS. LIGHT RAIN EXTENDS TO THE EAST AS FAR AS AT LEAST PERRY FLORIDA. TAMPA IS REPORTING BROKEN MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. FAIR SKIES COVER THE REST OF THE FLORIDA GULF COASTAL PLAINS. THE OFFSHORE OIL DRILLING SITES THAT ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... FAIR SKIES ARE OBSERVED AT THE SITES THAT ARE IMMEDIATELY OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE TO THE EAST OF 91W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF THE 30N85W 18N93W COLD FRONT. FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WATER VAPOR LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N48W...TO 32N52W 25N56W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N63W... TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N66W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT AND A 995 MB GALE CENTER. THE 995 MB GALE CENTER IS NEAR 34N48W. THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 31N40W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N40W TO 26N44W 19N50W AND 15N55W. A SECOND TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO 29N50W AND 25N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 44W AND 56W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 34W AND 44W...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 16N56W 20N49W 24N43W. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 56W. 30W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA/ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND PUERTO RICO...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 17N. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS NEAR 21N72W...TO 18N84W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. THE FORECAST IS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS NEAR 21N72W...TO 18N84W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N11W...TO AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N23W...TO 22N35W 15N38W AND 7N42W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 13N30W. A RIDGE IS ALONG 13N21W 13N30W 7N45W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 15 TO 18 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 15 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE EXCEPT TO THE WEST OF THE BAHAMAS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT