000 AXNT20 KNHC 111733 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON MAR 11 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W CONTINUING ALONG 6N17W TO 2N21W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 26W-37W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-7N E OF 16W TO JUST INLAND OVER LIBERIA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES IS MOVING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 11/1500 UTC ENTERS THE GULF ACROSS MOBILE ALABAMA ALONG 26N91W 22N94W THEN S INTO MEXICO NEAR 18N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150/180 NM W OF THE FRONT TO 20N. A REMNANT STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS TO THE E OVER THE SW GULF S OF 24N W OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE FAR E GULF INTO THE W ATLC IS GIVING WAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES E. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OVER S TEXAS. ALTHOUGH A MIX OF CLOUDS COVERS THE GULF E OF THE FRONT LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED. SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS MOST OF LOUISIANA...MEXICO AND ALL OF TEXAS. COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY TUE AND SE OF THE GULF TUE NIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT S OF 26N WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PERSIST OVER THE SE GULF INTO FRI THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS E OVER THE N GULF WATERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS CUBA INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CARIBBEAN DOMINATED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTENDS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR GUADELOUPE ALONG 15N69W 13N79W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N BETWEEN 80W-83W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH TUE. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR W CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT EXTENDING FROM W CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS EARLY WED THEN FROM E CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS EARLY THU BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE BORDER OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA EARLY FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND FAR E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND COVERING THE W ATLC N OF 20N W OF 60W. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC S INTO THE E CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 40W-70W SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N38W AND EXTENDS ALONG 24N44W TO 20N49W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO 14N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS THE FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N50W TO 28N57W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 51W-60W. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N29W COVERS THE E ATLC AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY N OF 30N BETWEEN 30W-40W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 18N E OF ABOVE FRONT ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1022 MB HIGH N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N16W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE E THROUGH TUE. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST BY TUE NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR 32N73W TO CENTRAL CUBA EARLY WED THEN FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA EARLY THU AND FROM 32N56W THROUGH 23N65W TO HAITI EARLY FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW