000 AXNT20 KNHC 110604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON MAR 11 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 4N16W AND 3N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N22W... TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 30W...TO 1S40W...TO 3S42W AT THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 17W AND 21W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2S TO 3N BETWEEN 23W AND 35W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 5N TO THE EAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 25N87W...BEYOND 32N85W IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 90W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 90W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN IOWA TO OKLAHOMA...AND TO CENTRAL AND WEST TEXAS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN COASTAL LOUISIANA...TO 27N94W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 22N98W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 25N TO 26N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W...AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO MISSISSIPPI. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST. FAIR SKIES COVER THE FLORIDA GULF OF MEXICO COAST. BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE REST OF THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES. VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN 2 MILES WITH LOW CLOUDS AND HAZE/FOG ARE OBSERVED AT KMYT AND AT KEHC...TWO OFFSHORE DRILLING SITES. OVERCAST MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED AT THE OFFSHORE OIL DRILLING SITES THAT ARE ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST. VISIBILITIES RANGING FROM 3 TO 5 MILES ARE FOUND IN MANY OF THE OTHER AREAS OF THE OFFSHORE OIL DRILLING SITES THAT ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE WIND CONDITIONS THAT ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ALONG 29N91W 20N97W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WATER VAPOR LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N52W...TO 28N61W AND 23N67W...ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N71W TO 12N74W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT AND A 990 MB GALE CENTER. THE 990 MB GALE CENTER IS NEAR 34N53W. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 30N43W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 30N43W TO 24N50W AND 17N60W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS WITHIN 200 NM TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHERN END OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND TAPERING OFF GRADUALLY IN ORDER TO BE WITHIN 100 NM TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 60 TO 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N37W 29N40W... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN TO THE WEST OF 30W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA/ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND PUERTO RICO...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS AND 83W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TO 21N77W ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA...TO 27N78W JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO 17N82W TO 10N82W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. THE FORECAST IS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TO 21N77W ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA...TO 27N78W JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO 17N82W TO 10N82W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N23W...TO 24N32W...TO 18N42W...AND TO 12N56W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 10N43W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N43W TO 17N60W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 12 TO 14 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 14 TO 19 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 55W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS 15 TO 19 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 55W AND 68W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 12 TO 16 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 31N36W 19N55W 30N79W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT