000
AXNT20 KNHC 102359
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN MAR 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC THROUGH THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W THEN CONTINUING 
ALONG 4N13W 3N20W TO 1N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 1N23W THEN S 
OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S41W. 
WIDESPREAD SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 
6N BETWEEN 7W AND 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S 
TO 2N BETWEEN 24W AND 36W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES 
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE NW GULF BY SOUTHERN 
LOUISIANA NEAR 29N92W AND EXTENDS ALONG 27N95W 25N96W. RADAR 
IMAGERY DEPICT SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL AS 45 
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST 
OF SOUTH CAROLINA. E OF 94W CLEAR SKIES ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY 
DRY AIR ALOFT. IN THE SW GULF W OF 94W AND S OF 23N...SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY A 1003 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
LOCATED NEAR PUEBLA MEXICO AND MOIST AIR BEING ADVECTED FROM THE 
E PACIFIC OVER THE REGION. EAST OF THE FRONT...20-25 KT 
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DOMINATE THE REGION. OVER THE COURSE OF 24 
HOURS...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ACROSS ALABAMA EXTENDING TO THE 
CENTRAL GULF PRODUCING SHOWERS TO THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. IN 
TERMS OF WIND...SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT WILL BE 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL 
BUILD WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE LINE FROM CENTRAL-SOUTH CARIBBEAN TO 
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND A SURFACE PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING 
FROM 16N61W TO 14N68W IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 16N E 
OF 74W. THIS SHOWERS ARE BEING ENHANCED BY MOISTURE ADVECTION 
FROM S AMERICA AND THE E PACIFIC. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN 
ENJOYS CLEAR SKIES BEING ASSISTED BY DRY AIR ALOFT. EASTERLY 
TRADEWINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT DOMINATE THE REGION. THESE 
TRADEWINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH COVERS A GREAT PORTION OF THE W ATLC AND 
THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 18N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS 
THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 30N46W AND EXTENDS ALONG 22N54W TO 18N64W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 190 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. A 
SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N48W TO 
27N55W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N37W ALONG 22N48W 
17N58W TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N68W. NUMEROUS MODERATE 
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS N 
OF 26N BETWEEN 35W AND 43W. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING SUPPORTED 
BY UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENT FLOW FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER 
THE CENTRAL ATLC AND A RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC. A SURFACE RIDGE 
COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 14N E OF LEADING SURFACE TROUGH ANCHORED 
BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 29N23W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR