000 AXNT20 KNHC 101748 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN MAR 10 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N15W CONTINUING ALONG 6N18W TO 3N20W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 1N25W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 5W-16W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 19W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES SUPPORTING A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS. THE LEADING FRONT AT 10/1500 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE GULF S OF GALVESTON TEXAS THEN BACK INLAND OVER EXTREME S TEXAS/NE MEXICO JUST N OF BROWNSVILLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER TEXAS. THE SECOND FRONT REMAINS INLAND OVER TEXAS. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF A LINE FROM SE LOUISIANA NEAR TERREBONNE BAY TO JUST N OF TAMPICO MEXICO TO THE ABOVE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE ACROSS THE GULF TO OVER THE FAR E CONUS/EASTERN SEABOARD NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE FAR E GULF INTO THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY MON THEN FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY TUE AND OUT OF THE GULF TUE NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A CONVERGENCE LINE IS BEING PRODUCED FROM NE NICARAGUA TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTENDS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N72W TO 12N81W AND A SIMILAR LINE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W TO 14N70W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE THROUGH TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR W CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT THEN EXTEND FROM W CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS EARLY WED AND FROM E CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS EARLY THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 70W. THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 20N W OF 68W. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-70W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N47W AND EXTENDS ALONG 24N54W TO THE MONA PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS THE FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N53W ALONG 2857W TO 28N62W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM E OF THE TROUGH E OF 57W. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE W ATLC N OF 22N W OF 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N39W ALONG 24N46W TO NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N59W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED NEAR 14N36W AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF LEADING SURFACE TROUGH ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 28N24W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO JUST N OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST TUE LATE AND WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR 32N73W TO CENTRAL CUBA EARLY WED AND FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA EARLY THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW