000
AXNT20 KNHC 101109
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAR 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 
3N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N20W TO 1N36W TO THE  COAST OF 
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 
0W-7W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ 
FROM 3S-2N BETWEEN 20W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA NEAR 37N77W. A SURFACE 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS S FROM THE HIGH TO W CUBA NEAR 23N82W. 15-20 
KT SE SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS 
SURFACE RETURN FLOW IS PRODUCING OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND 
SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER N OF 
28N BETWEEN 87W-90W. FURTHER W...A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER 
E TEXAS WITH CONVECTION MOVING SE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... 
WESTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W  PRODUCING 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS. FAIR WEATHER IS S OF 25N. EXPECT 
IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W GULF FROM E 
LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO MEXICO WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT 25 KT N 
WINDS W OF THE FRONT...AND 10-20 KT SE WINDS E OF THE FRONT.    

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA FROM 
17N-20N BETWEEN 64W-73W. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN WITH HIGHEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. A 
1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER NW VENEZUELA NEAR LAKE MARACAIBO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...COSTA 
RICA...AND NICARAGUA FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 76W-85W. THE REMAINDER 
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...THE WESTERN END OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW 
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR 
MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO OCCUR. ALSO EXPECT THE TRADEWINDS 
TO PERSIST WITH THE ADDITION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE 
COAST OF VENEZUELA.    

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 991 MB LOW IS N OF THE AREA OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 36N57W. A 
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT S OF THE LOW IS PRODUCING A GALE 
N OF 29N BETWEEN 55W-64W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N40W AND EXTENDS SW TO THE LEEWARD 
ISLANDS AT 17N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE 
FRONT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS FURTHER W EXTENDING FROM 
31N48W TO 22N60W TO 20N67W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF 
THIS FRONT N OF 27N BETWEEN 46W-51W. A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED 
OVER THE E ATLANTIC W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N26W. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 
20N BETWEEN 50W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N E OF 50W 
TO WEST AFRICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE 
DISSIPATING FRONT TO FULLY DISSIPATE WHILE THE OTHER COLD FRONT 
MOVES E WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA