000
AXNT20 KNHC 100532
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN MAR 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 
3N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N23W TO 0N39W TO THE  COAST OF 
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 
4W-3E. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ 
FROM 3S-3N BETWEEN 17W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA NEAR 38N78W. A SURFACE 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS S FROM THE HIGH TO W CUBA NEAR 23N82W. 15-20 
KT SE SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS 
SURFACE RETURN FLOW IS PRODUCING OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND 
SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER N OF 
28N BETWEEN 87W-90W. FURTHER W...A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER 
CENTRAL TEXAS WITH CONVECTION MOVING SE. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...WESTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W  
PRODUCING BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS. FAIR WEATHER IS S OF 
25N. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W GULF 
FROM W LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO MEXICO WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT 
25 KT N WINDS W OF THE FRONT...AND 10-20 KT SE WINDS E OF THE 
FRONT.    

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 18N60W TO 15N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N 
OF THE FRONT OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA FROM 17N-20N 
BETWEEN 64W-73W. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF 
THE CARIBBEAN WITH HIGHEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. 
A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND 
NICARAGUA FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 76W-85W. THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE 
WESTERN END OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL 
FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR MORE ZONAL 
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO OCCUR. ALSO EXPECT THE FRONT IN 24 HOURS TO 
BE FULLY DISSIPATED. ELSEWHERE...THE TRADEWINDS WILL PERSIST 
WITH THE ADDITION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OF 
VENEZUELA.    

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 990 MB LOW IS N OF THE AREA OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 36N58W. A 
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT S OF THE LOW IS PRODUCING A GALE 
N OF 29N BETWEEN 55W-67W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N42W AND EXTENDS SW TO THE LEEWARD 
ISLANDS AT 18N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE 
FRONT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS FURTHER W EXTENDING FROM 
31N52W TO 23N65W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THIS 
FRONT N OF 27N BETWEEN 46W-51W. A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER 
THE E ATLANTIC W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N29W. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N 
BETWEEN 50W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N E OF 50W TO 
WEST AFRICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE DISSIPATING 
FRONT TO FULLY DISSIPATE WHILE THE OTHER COLD FRONT MOVES E WITH 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA