000 AXNT20 KNHC 091158 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT MAR 09 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W 5N18W 2N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N23W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 30W...ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...TO 2S44W AT THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 5N TO THE EAST OF 10W...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 24W AND 36W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 19W AND 24W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 36W AND 47W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM COLOMBIA IN SOUTH AMERICA...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND THE TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COAST... AND COVERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 5N77W...TO COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W...TO GUATEMALA NEAR 16N90W...TO 22N91W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND COASTAL LOUISIANA NEAR 30N91W. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... TO THE NORTH OF 24N81W 23N90W AND 20N97W. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 90W IS MOVING INTO THE FLOW THAT IS RELATED TO THE 32N63W 15N76W ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE GEORGIA AND FLORIDA... TO 20N82W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TO 14N88W IN HONDURAS...INTO NORTHERN COSTA RICA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS... COMPARATIVELY CLOSER TO THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS COMPARATIVELY MORE INLAND...TO THE WEST...AWAY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST. THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS ARE COVERED WITH BROKEN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. FAIR SKIES COVER THE GULF COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. VISIBILITIES OF 2 TO 3 MILES WITH FOG HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI AND AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN PENSACOLA FLORIDA DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE VISIBILITY HAS FALLEN TO SLIGHTLY LESS THAN 2 MILES WITH FOG IN PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA FOR THE LAST OBSERVATION. FAIR SKIES COVER THE REST OF THE FLORIDA GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS SOUTHWARD TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE VISIBILITY OF 4 MILES IN HAZE IS OBSERVED IN THE OFFSHORE OIL DRILLING SITES THAT ARE OFF THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. DRILLING SITE KGBK IS REPORTING A LOW CLOUD CEILING RANGING FROM 3000 FEET TO 4000 FEET. FAIR SKIES COVER THE REST OF THE STATIONS THAT ARE IN THE AREA OF THE OFFSHORE OIL DRILLING SITES THAT ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 18 HOUR FORECAST FOR 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 94W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO EASTERN HONDURAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WIND FLOW MERGES WITH MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS CUBA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA IS PART OF THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING WITH THE 5N77W 30N91W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 79W... INCLUDING INLAND IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 10N77W... TO 10N83W IN COSTA RICA...AND BEYOND 10N85W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 75W AND 82W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TOWARD THE GREATER ANTILLES... AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 37N66W IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THAT CENTER...THROUGH 32N63W...TO 24N65W...TO NORTH CENTRAL HISPANIOLA...AND 15N76W. IT APPEARS THAT THE ATLANTIC OCEAN PART OF THE TROUGH AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA PART OF THE TROUGH ARE IN PHASE WITH EACH OTHER NOW. A 986 MB STORM LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 38N64W. A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY EXTENDS FROM THAT CENTER...THROUGH 32N48W TO 23N56W TO 19N65W. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 19N65W... ACROSS PUERTO RICO...TO HAITI NEAR 19N72W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS WITHIN 120 NM TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT ALONG THE NORTHERN END...AND WITHIN 200 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE SOUTHERN END. EVERYTHING IS FROM 18N TO 31N BETWEEN 46W AND 58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 32W AND 48W. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N18W TO 22N24W TO 18N30W. NO SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N35W TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N35W...TO 23N37W 14N46W AND 3N58W IN SOUTHERN GUYANA. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...AND BEYOND 32N8W IN MOROCCO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF 30N10W 26N25W 20N30W...TO THE EAST OF 40W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 9N69W IN VENEZUELA...TO 10N60W AND 12N50W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 32N48W 19N65W 19N72W FRONTAL BOUNDARY...TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 61W AND 71W...AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 16 TO 20 FEET. OTHER WIND AND SEA INFORMATION...EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 12 TO 18 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 57W AND 75W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 10 TO 15 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 25N WITHIN 150 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 15 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 19N TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT