000 AXNT20 KNHC 081743 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI MAR 08 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N15W TO 9N16W 4N20W AND 2N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N24W TO 1N32W 3N38W 2N44W AND THE EQUATOR ALONG 48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM COLOMBIA IN SOUTH AMERICA...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND THE TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COAST... AND COVERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 5N77W...TO COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W...TO GUATEMALA NEAR 15N90W...TO 23N93W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND THE TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COAST NEAR 27N97W. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING PUSHED INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF 20N97W 25N88W BEYOND 31N88W. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 90W IS MOVING INTO THE FLOW THAT IS RELATED TO THE 32N66W 13N75W ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF FLORIDA... ALABAMA...AND MISSISSIPPI...TO 28N87W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... TO 20N80W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE 10N78W...12N77W... 16N70W...BEYOND 20N60W JUST OUTSIDE THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 77W. THIS WIND FLOW MERGES WITH MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS CUBA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA IS PART OF THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING WITH THE 5N77W 27N97W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 08/1200 UTC WAS 0.61 OF AN INCH...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE... MIATPTPAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 75W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 83W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA/COSTA RICA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT NORTH-TO-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W...AND THE 20 TO 25 KNOT NORTH-TO-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 14N TO THE WEST OF 81W. FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO JUST TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 38N63W IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THAT CENTER...THROUGH 32N66W...TO 28N68W 22N69W TO 16N73W AND 13N75W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A 985 MB STORM LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 38N63W. A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY EXTENDS FROM THAT CENTER...THROUGH 32N53W TO 24N60W AND 22N65W. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 22N65W TO 21N70W...INTO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N77W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS WITHIN 180 NM TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT ALONG THE NORTHERN END...AND WITHIN 300 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE SOUTHERN END...EVERYTHING IS BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 46W AND 53W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N25W TO 29N34W TO 24N40W. NO FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS WITH THIS TROUGH. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ALONG 32N10W...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 27N20W AND 22N29W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N14W TO 30N20W 25N30W 25N40W TO 30N45W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N9W 26N20W 23N30W 21N40W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 10N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N56W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 8N46W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE SITUATION WILL START WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT AND 69W...EXCEPT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN FRONT AND 69W. SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 13 TO 19 FEET. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS ELSEWHERE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE BAHAMAS. THE SEA HEIGHTS RANGE FROM 9 TO 13 FEET...EXCEPT REACHING 8 FEET TO THE WEST OF 78W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 10 TO 15 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 25N WITHIN 300 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF 29N WITHIN 240 NM TO THE WEST OF A 31N66W 29N72W COLD FRONT. SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 13 TO 18 FEET...EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 12 TO 16 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 77W. A SEPARATE PART OF THE MARINE FORECAST INCLUDES WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND 9 TO 13 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 51W...WITH THE COMPARATIVELY HIGHEST SEAS IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT