000
AXNT20 KNHC 080542
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI MAR 08 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC ACROSS GUINEA BISSAU NEAR 10N15W ALONG 5N18W TO 1N22W WHERE THE 
ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG EQ30W 2N36W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 47W 
INTO SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 22W. WIDESPREAD 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4S TO 10N BETWEEN 23W AND 
47W.   

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH WINDS 
FROM 5-15 KT ACROSS THE BASIN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA. THE PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF IS 
PROVIDING NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW UP TO 60 KT AND MOISTURE FROM THE 
E PACIFIC IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE NW GULF. SOUTHERLY RETURN 
SURFACE FLOW OVER THE SAME AREA IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N 
OF 23N W OF 90W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CONTINUES UNDER 
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC CROSSES E CUBA AND ENTERS THE WEST 
CARIBBEAN ALONG 19N75W TO 18N78W. AT THE MOMENT THERE IS NO 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED TO THIS WEAK FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD ANTICYCLONE WITH CENTER 
NEAR 11N55W IS PROVIDING WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UP TO 65 
KT. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ASSISTING IN THE 
GENERATION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THESE REGIONS OF THE 
BASIN. THE WEST CARIBBEAN CONTINUES UNDER FAIR WEATHER 
CONDITIONS BEING ASSISTED BY DRY AIR ALOFT. IN TERMS OF 
WINDS...TRADEWINDS IN THE RANGE OF 5-20 KT ARE E OF 75W WHEREAS 
NORTHEASTERLIES OF 10-20 KT SPREAD W OF 75W. OVER THE COURSE OF 
24 HOURS...THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WHILE MOVING 
EASTWARD OVER THE HISPANIOLA.   

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 53W 
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 30N57W AND 
EXTENDS ALONG 25N61W 22N70W INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS E CUBA 
NEAR 20N74W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT N 
OF 29N BETWEEN 55W AND 68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH 
THIS FRONT ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 52W AND 57W. A SURFACE RIDGE 
COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W ANCHORED BY A 
1021 MB HIGH NEAR 24N41W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FROM 
7N-20N E OF 40W OVER THE E ATLC SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD 
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 30N13W CONTINUING ALONG 25N23W 
TO 21N36W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THIS FRONT. OVER THE COURSE OF 24 HOURS...BOTH FRONTAL 
BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO VANISH. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR