000 AXNT20 KNHC 070548 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU MAR 07 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO 05N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N16W TO 02N21W TO 02N33W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 04W-13W...AND S OF 04N BETWEEN 17W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVER THE GULF BASIN THIS EVENING WITH A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 94W. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF ANCHORED ON A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N94W. ONE EXCEPTION TO THE RIDGING IS A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS. THE FRONT ENTERS THE GULF AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 25N80W AND EXTENDS WESTWARD TO 24N85W AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO 23N94W TO THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 18N94W. WHILE MOSTLY DRY E OF 90W...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE W OF 90W WITHIN 150 NM NORTH AND WEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE NW GULF SHIFTS EASTS. BY FRIDAY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL HAVE RE-ESTABLISHED THEMSELVES W OF 90W AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N57W WHICH IS PROVIDING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WHILE THE UPPER LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL...TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ENTERS THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N E OF 70W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND TERMINATES NEAR 17N62W...HOWEVER THE LINGERING MOISTURE IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 17N E OF 78W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM NORTH OF JAMAICA NEAR 19N77W TO 14N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W TO 10N83W OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE...E-NE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST E OF 78W THROUGH FRIDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 36N72W AND REFLECTS AT THE SURFACE AS A 992 MB LOW OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLC COAST NEAR 37N73W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N68W AND EXTENDS SW TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE E-NE. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH LATE THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT. FARTHER EAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...SURFACE RIDGING IS NOTED ON EITHER SIDE OF A COLD FRONT BRIDGING THE TWO SURFACE HIGHS...ONE CENTERED NEAR 25N57W AS A 1020 MB HIGH AND THE OTHER A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 20N28W. THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN THEM IS ANALYZED FROM 32N24W SW TO 22N40W TO 19N54W AND THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN