000 AXNT20 KNHC 062322 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED MAR 06 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 3N13W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 2N22W 1N33W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W INTO SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 14W-22W... FROM 4N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 22W-36W...AND FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 36W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E GULF INTO THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AT 06/2100 UTC NEAR 25N80W ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS CONTINUING ALONG 23N93W THEN S INTO S MEXICO NEAR 18N94W. THE FRONT IS FAIRLY DRY WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE W GULF FROM NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO TO ACROSS TEXAS AND THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. THIS IS LEAVING THE N GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF GULF TONIGHT. SE RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE SAT AND SUN AHEAD OF SECOND COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TEXAS COAST LATE SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC OFF THE COAST OF GUYANA SOUTH AMERICA GIVING THE BASIN SW TO W WINDS ALOFT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING AT 06/2100 UTC FROM W JAMAICA TO 11N81W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE TROUGH. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO NEAR 17N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO N OF 17N BETWEEN 72W-78W INCLUDING HAITI...JAMAICA...AND E CUBA. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ALOFT...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN REACHING FROM E CUBA TO BELIZE LATE THU BEFORE STALLING FROM HAITI TO N CENTRAL HONDURAS FRI AND BECOMING DIFFUSE SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC TO OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION AT 06/2100 UTC NEAR 32N70W AND EXTENDS ALONG 28N75W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 26N-28N. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 29N TO 80W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC N OF 20N E OF THE FRONT AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 26N62W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N25W CONTINUING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 24N39W TO 20N54W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC SE OF THE ABOVE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 21N27W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N63W TO CENTRAL CUBA LATE THU AND FROM 32N58W TO WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE FRI THEN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW