000 AXNT20 KNHC 060546 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED MAR 06 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 06N14W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N14W TO 02N24W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 37W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN 20W-31W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN 33W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND INTO THE GULF WATERS VIA THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ALONG 26N93W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 22N98W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND WEST OF THE FRONT SOUTH OF 26N. IN ADDITION...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GULF ALONG 94W. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER VENEZUELA NEAR 09N62W WHICH IS PROVIDING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND NE CARIBBEAN. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BETWEEN 75W-84W...AND N OF 16N BETWEEN 60W-69W IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM 19N60W TO 16N67W. OTHERWISE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... E-NE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS A RIDGE SETTLES IN OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 28N70W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... GENERALLY WESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE EAST OF AN APPROACHING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WHILE A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SW NORTH ATLC OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...CURRENTLY A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N72W AND IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS. FARTHER EAST...A FAST MOVING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF 34N45W AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 32N42W SW TO 20N60W. ANOTHER COLD FRONT...A LINGERING BOUNDARY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THIS PRIMARY COLD FRONT PREVIOUS MENTIONED. THIS COLD FRONT LIES ALONG 32N29W SW TO THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N63W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE EASTERN-MOST COLD FRONT. THESE TWO FRONT ARE FORECAST TO MERGE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN ATLC. IN THE MEANTIME...THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 20N30W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN