000
AXNT20 KNHC 042349
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON MAR 04 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 
4N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 4N20W AND CONTINUES TO 1N30W TO BRAZIL 
NEAR 1S49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 
22W-29W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-3N 
BETWEEN 36W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER TAMPA FLORIDA 
NEAR 28N83W. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. 10 
KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE GOING AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH...WHILE 
15-20 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE W GULF WITH STRONGEST 
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE ENTIRE 
AREA VOID OF PRECIPITATION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL 
FLOW IS NOTED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...IN 24 HOURS FOR A 
COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA TO BROWNSVILLE 
TEXAS. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE E TO THE WESTERN 
ATLANTIC NEAR 27N75W.  

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM PUERTO 
RICO AT 18N66W TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AT 15N73W TO E PANAMA 
AT 9N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA 
...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 78W-85W TO INCLUDE 
THE COASTS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA. NORTHERLY 
WINDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT. 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN WHILE ONLY 10 KT WINDS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. 
10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA 
E OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N 
COLOMBIA...AND NW VENEZUELA NEAR LAKE MARACAIBO. MOSTLY FAIR 
WEATHER IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER 
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER VENEZUELA NEAR 5N64W PRODUCING S TO 
SW FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT IN 
24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE HOWEVER RESIDUAL MOISTURE 
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 
31N66W TO THE N BAHAMAS AT 26N77W. A GALE IS W OF THE TROUGH N 
OF 28N BETWEEN 65W-72W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC FROM 31N49W TO PUERTO RICO AT 18N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE FRONT. A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED 
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 22N44W. A COLD FRONT IS NOW E OF 
THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM 30N10W TO 22N20W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO. A GALE IS W OF THIS FRONT N OF 26N 
BETWEEN 18W-28W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-80W 
SUPPORTING THE SURFACE TROUGH. A VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 60W WITH AXIS 
ALONG 40W. EXPECT THE W ATLANTIC TROUGH AND THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA