000 AXNT20 KNHC 041804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON MAR 04 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 4N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N20W TO 2N27W 1N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 37W...TO 1S40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 20W AND 26W...AND FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN 40W AND 43W... ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N TO THE EAST OF 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 24N103W BEYOND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N102W IN SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 17N106W AND 13N105W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ALABAMA/GEORGIA BORDER TO A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N86W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE GUATEMALA/HONDURAS BORDER NEAR 15N89W. ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS...INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFEP2...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED IN THE AREA OF THE OFFSHORE OIL DRILLING SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W. HAZY SKIES ARE ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST...AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 85W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET...TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 30N92W TO 22N98W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... LARGE AND BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE HAS MOVED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA... TO THE NORTH OF 19N TO THE WEST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE ALSO IS TO THE EAST OF 63W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS ALONG THE VENEZUELA COAST NEAR 10N66W AND IT EXTENDS TO 15N66W AND 17N65W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 17N70W... AND TO 9N77W ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 25N60W 22N66W...TO SOUTHWESTERN HAITI.RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN HAITI TO 16N78W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 9N83W IN WESTERN PANAMA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W TO 15N73W AND 9N77W ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT...THE HIGHEST SEAS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PART. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 20N74W TO 17N76W...INCLUDING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 13N52W 22N48W BEYOND 32N44W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND 62W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N64W TO 26N69W AND 25N75W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 25N60W AND 20N66W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 17N70W... AND TO 9N77W ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST. A FIRST SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 28N65W 24N73W AND IN THE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N74W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO 29N78W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR BERMUDA FOR THE TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 04/1200 UTC ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.45 OF AN INCH. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W 25N60W...AND WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 25N60W 22N66W...TO SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN HAITI TO 16N78W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 9N83W IN WESTERN PANAMA. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N17W TO 23N19W AND 16N22W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N9W TO 23N20W TO 23N32W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 11N36W 8N41W 6N44W 4N45W. A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 23N45W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 20W AND THE 32N50W 25N60W 20N66W 17N70W 9N77W COLD FRONT. THIS INCLUDES THE AREA THAT IS AWAY FROM THE 32N9W 23N20W 23N32W COLD FRONT. PLEASE READ THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE DEVELOPING GALE IN ABOUT SIX HOURS...THAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 31N50W 26N58W 19N65W COLD FRONT...A 31N60W 26N64W 21N70W SURFACE TROUGH...AND A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH 31N68W 28N72W 26N76W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 65W AND 74W. ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS FROM 22N TO 26N TO THE WEST OF THE FIRST TROUGH...SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 24N WITHIN 300 NM TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. A SECOND AREA OF GALE-FORCE WIND IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ABOUT 42 HOURS... WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO BE ALONG 31N80W 30N81W. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 13 TO 17 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE EAST OF THE LINE 31N38W 24N35W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 13 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 45W. THE WIND SPEEDS ARE 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACH 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 9N BETWEEN 42W AND 55W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT