000 AXNT20 KNHC 041147 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON MAR 04 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 05N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N20W TO 02N23W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-04N BETWEEN 12W-21W...AND S OF 02N BETWEEN 32W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STRETCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GULF FROM OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26N81W W-SW TO A BASE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 21N101W. NORTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N89W. ONLY A FEW STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY GENERALLY S OF 27N E OF 88W. AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD E OF 90W WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FORECAST OVER THE NW GULF AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST EARLY TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC SOUTHWESTWARD TO OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W TO 09N77W. ABUNDANT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FOCUSED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS DOMINATE WEST OF THE FRONT WITH WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT. OVERALL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE DECREASING THROUGH TUESDAY OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AS THE FRONT DRIFTS EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. EAST OF THE FRONT...TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS EAST OF THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC ALONG 32N71W TO OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 25N81W THEN OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N54W SW TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W AND INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT WITHIN 300 NM WEST OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. TO THE NORTHWEST...A SECONDARY SURGE OF ENERGY MANIFESTS ITSELF AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 30N66W TO 23N74W. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KT DOMINATE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WITHIN 24 HOURS. FARTHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS IN CONTROL ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 23N47W. FINALLY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE NE ATLC N OF 25N E OF 30W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N11W PASSING THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N15W TO 22N26W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A LARGE AREA OF GALE FORCE NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE NOTED WEST OF THE COLD FRONT GENERALLY N OF 26N BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND 32W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN