000 AXNT20 KNHC 040548 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON MAR 04 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 05N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N19W TO 02N21W TO 02N31W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 04N BETWEEN 33W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STRETCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GULF FROM OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26N81W W-SW TO A BASE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 22N102W. NORTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N91W. ONLY A FEW STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY GENERALLY E OF 88W. AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD E OF 90W WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FORECAST OVER THE NW GULF AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST EARLY TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC SOUTHWESTWARD TO OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM EASTERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W TO 10N79W. ABUNDANT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FOCUSED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS DOMINATE WEST OF THE FRONT WITH WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE FROM 11N TO 15N. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AS THE FRONT DRIFTS EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. EAST OF THE FRONT...TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC ALONG 32N76W TO OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 25N81W THEN OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N57W SW TO EASTERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W AND INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT WITHIN 300 NM WEST OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. TO THE NORTHWEST...A SECONDARY SURGE OF ENERGY MANIFESTS ITSELF AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 32N69W TO 27N74W. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KT DOMINATE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WITHIN 24 HOURS. FARTHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS IN CONTROL ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 22N47W. FINALLY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE NE ATLC N OF 25N E OF 30W AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N13W PASSING THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N16W TO 24N20W TO 23N27W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A LARGE AREA OF GALE FORCE NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE NOTED WEST OF THE COLD FRONT GENERALLY N OF 26N BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND 33W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN