000
AXNT20 KNHC 032329
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN MAR 03 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO 5N20W. THE 
ITCZ BEGINS AT 5N20W AND CONTINUES TO 1N40W TO BRAZIL NEAR 
1S49W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-3N 
BETWEEN 35W-46W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W GULF OF 
MEXICO NEAR 25N92W. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. 
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE E GULF...CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND 
SOUTH FLORIDA. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE GOING AROUND THE 
SURFACE HIGH...WHILE 20-30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE E 
GULF WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE SE GULF. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS 
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR NAPLES FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS FROM THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE TO TAMPICO MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE 
ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO BE N 
OF TAMPA FLORIDA WITH FAIR WEATHER. THE W GULF WILL THEN HAVE 
20-25 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA AT 20N69W 
TO TO THE SW CARIBBEAN AT 14N77W TO PANAMA AT 9N79W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM NW OF THE FRONT. A GALE IS W OF THE 
FRONT FROM 11N-15N. 20-30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER 
THE W CARIBBEAN W OF FRONT. 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
OVER N COLOMBIA...AND NW VENEZUELA NEAR LAKE MARACAIBO. MOSTLY 
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW FLOW OVER 
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SIGNIFICANT UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUD ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
BETWEEN 70W-82W. IN CONTRAST STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE 
YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. EXPECT IN 
24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO E 
PANAMA WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT IN 12 HOURS FOR THE GALE FORCE 
WINDS TO BE LESS THAN GALE. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N59W TO HISPANIOLA 
AT 20N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM NW OF THE FRONT. 
A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 
23N46W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM N OF THE CANARY 
ISLANDS AT 31N17W TO 26N30W TO 25N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A GALE IS N OF FRONT N OF 29N BETWEEN 
23W-38W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS 
OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 40W SUPPORTING THE E ATLANTIC 
FRONT. EXPECT BOTH COLD FRONTS TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
ALSO EXPECT IN 24 HOURS...FOR ANOTHER GALE TO BE OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC N OF 29N BETWEEN 68W-73W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA