000 AXNT20 KNHC 022354 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT MAR 02 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO 5N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N19W TO 2N23W AND 1N30W... CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 40W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S49W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN BRAZIL FROM 1S TO 4S BETWEEN 45W AND 50W...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 47W AND 49W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N13W 3N20W 2N26W 1N32W... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 2S TO 3N BETWEEN 27W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA TO 28N89W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 23N94W TO 22N99W IN EAST CENTRAL MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH 28N BETWEEN 82W AND 83W IN FLORIDA... TO 23N90W IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND 20N97W IN MEXICO. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE 32N77W 20N97W LINE IS PUSHING HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS MEXICO...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND BEYOND FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...THROUGH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS...TO 24N98W IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...TO 20N94W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 17N88W IN COASTAL BELIZE...TO 15N87W IN CENTRAL HONDURAS. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE STORM WARNING THAT EXISTS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES ARE OBSERVED TO THE WEST OF 94W...IN THE AREA OF THE OFFSHORE OIL DRILLING SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WITH HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 3000 FEET TO 5000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE IN THE AREAS OF THE OTHER OIL DRILLING SITES. CLEAR SKIES ARE OBSERVED IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS AND ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND COASTAL PLAINS. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE IN THE COASTAL AREAS FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA BORDER...AND FAIR SKIES ARE ELSEWHERE IN COASTAL LOUISIANA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS... WITH HIGHER CLOUD CEILINGS...ARE OBSERVED IN FLORIDA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS IN THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT TO THE SOUTH OF 22N TO THE WEST OF 94W AND TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 87W. SEA HEIGHTS REACH 9 FEET TO THE EAST OF 96W INCLUDING IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND TO 8 FEET IN NORTHWESTERLY SWELL TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 87W. FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 30W... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS NEAR 6N71W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA...ACROSS MARTINIQUE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...THROUGH 22N61W...BEYOND 32N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 30W. FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N34W 29N40W 27N50W 27N55W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 27N55W TO 26N68W AND 24N72W. THE FRONT BECOMES COLD AGAIN FROM 24N72W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W...ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N78W...CURVING TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...TO 14N82W AND COASTAL COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 18W AND 32W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 28N29W 26N40W 25N50W 25N65W 20N72W...AND FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 72W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF 72W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE EAST OF 18N73W 13N72W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT ARE FORECAST TO START IN 6 HOURS OR SO... FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W...WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 TO 13 FEET. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ALONG 21N77W 17N81W 11N83W. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IS ALONG 22N78W 18N82W 11N84W. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 11 FEET. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N12W...BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND AFRICA...TO 26N15W AND 21N19W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF AFRICA... TO THE EAST OF 21N19W 25N16W BEYOND 32N12W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N29W TO A SECOND 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N50W TO 20N70W. PLEASE READ THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 31N37W 27N52W 26N70W 22N78W FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 13 TO 19 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO A LINE FROM 27N55W TO 31N57W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 19N TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 65W. EXPECT ALSO 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 74W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT