000
AXNT20 KNHC 021729
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT MAR 02 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO 3N20W. THE 
ITCZ BEGINS AT 3N20W AND CONTINUES TO 0N30W TO 0N40W TO BRAZIL 
NEAR 1S49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 23W-50W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N MEXICO NEAR 
26N100W. 15-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF 
MEXICO WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER THE SE 
WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE S OF 20N. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS MORE SCATTERED 
SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND W CUBA FROM 22N-25N 
BETWEEN 80W-82W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW IS NOTED WITH A 
110-170 KT JETSTREAM OVER THE N GULF N OF 24N. EXPECT...IN 24 
HOURS FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO BE OVER THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE. 20-25 KT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE 
OVER THE E GULF.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA AT 
22N77W TO A 1013 MB LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N83W TO THE 
COAST OF NICARAGUA AT 12N84W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE FRONT. 20-30 KT NORTHERLY 
SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NW OF THE FRONT. 10-25 
KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH 
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. MOSTLY 
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH 
AXIS ALONG 70W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUD 
HAS ADVECTED FROM THE E PACIFIC TO THE SW CARIBBEAN. IN CONTRAST 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS 
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM HISPANIOLA TO PANAMA WITH 
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT IN 12 HOURS GALE FORCE WINDS TO BE W OF 
FRONT BETWEEN 15N-17N. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N38W TO 26N60W TO 
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N77W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1018 MB HIGH IS 
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 21N37W. A COLD FRONT IS 
OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N14W TO 26N16W TO 21N22W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N 
BETWEEN 10W-35W SUPPORTING THE E ATLANTIC FRONT. EXPECT BOTH 
COLD FRONTS TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA