000 AXNT20 KNHC 010559 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI MAR 01 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC OVER LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W CONTINUING ALONG 4N13W TO 3N17W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES SW TO ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 21W-40W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR TO SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 8W-22W AND FROM 6N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 22W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLC E OF 40W. HOWEVER AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS...THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...INTO THE NW ATLC ARE SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 01/0300 UTC MEANDERS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA BETWEEN VERO BEACH TO FORT MYERS INTO THE GULF ALONG 25N84W 25N87W 23N91W 22N94W THEN S THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ. THERE IS LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. A DENSE COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF A LINE FROM 29N87W TO MEXICO NEAR 18N95W AND S OF LINE FROM 29N87W TO MEXICO NEAR 25N98W. THIS CLOUD BANK EXTENDS INLAND OVER MEXICO TO ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG 22N86W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF LINE FROM ACROSS S FLORIDA NEAR MIAMI INTO THE SE GULF ALONG 24N85W TO 23N89W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE N GULF N OF A LINE FROM APALACHICOLA BAY FLORIDA ALONG 28N89W TO 27N93W. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM S FLORIDA TO YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND SE OF THE GULF EARLY FRI. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DRIFT SE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE ACROSS THE AREA WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SAT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS THROUGHOUT. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE E GULF SUN AND MON WHERE IT WEAKEN. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE FAR W GULF LATE SUN INTO MON IN ADVANCE OF THE THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST MON NIGHT INTO TUE AND REACH FROM THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SW GULF BY LATE TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLC E OF 40W. THE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO OVER CUBA NEAR 22N80W THAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF W CUBA OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG 22N86W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W TO N BELIZE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE W OF A LINE FROM THE ISLE OF YOUTH OFF THE COAST OF CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND N BELIZE. ALTHOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE COVERING MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SE THROUGH EARLY FRI WHILE WEAKENING. THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SWEEP SE ENTERING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FRI MORNING THEN REACHING FROM W CUBA TO GULF OF HONDURAS FRI NIGHT FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NE HONDURAS SAT AND FROM E CUBA TO PANAMA SAT NIGHT. STRONG TO NEAR GALE N WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS MOST OF THE W CARIBBEAN EARLY SAT THROUGH LATE SUN. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADES WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH MON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLC E OF 40W. HOWEVER AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS...THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...INTO THE NW ATLC ARE SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 01/0300 UTC ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N67W TO 27N76W THEN MEANDERS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR VERO BEACH. THERE IS LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS AT 01/0300 UTC EXTENDING ACROSS BERMUDA CONTINUING ALONG 28N69W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER CUBA NEAR 22N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 25N W OF 77W TO THE STATIONARY FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 25N50W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 17N BETWEEN 20W-40W SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N23W AND EXTENDS ALONG 25N29W TO 21N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE SE AND MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT TONIGHT INTO FRI THEN REACH FROM 32N59W TO CENTRAL CUBA FRI MORNING. THE MERGED FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE E THROUGH SAT NIGHT. A SECOND AND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA AND MERGE WITH THE FIRST COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC LATE SUN INTO MON AND CONTINUE TO SHIFT E. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS LATE MON AND SLIDE E THROUGH TUE ALLOWING FOR SW WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE FAR W ATLC IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW