000 AXNT20 KNHC 281126 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU FEB 28 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC OVER SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N12W CONTINUING TO 3N15W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 1N21W 2N29W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 36W THEN INTO SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 9W-12W AND WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 5N14W TO 4N19W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION DOT THE AREA WITHIN 30/45 NM OF LINE FROM 4N6W TO 2N14W AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 19W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS TO THE N GULF COAST WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER W OHIO AND SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT AT 28/0900 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE GULF FROM A 1014 MB LOW OVER S ALABAMA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PENSACOLA CONTINUING ALONG 27N91W 25N95W THEN S TO INLAND OVER MEXICO BETWEEN TAMPICO AND TUXPAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. THE REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE SE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W ALONG 23N84W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM SE AND WITHIN 180 NM W OF THIS FRONT. STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE GULF AND REACH THE FAR SE GULF BY THIS EVENING AS IT WEAKENS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS GIVING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL PANAMA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GET REINFORCED BY STRONGER COLD FRONT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FRI AND WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE FRI. FRONT WILL REACH FROM E CUBA TO GULF OF HONDURAS SAT FOLLOWED BY STRONG N WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING TO GALE FORCE OVER PORTION OF SW CARIBBEAN SUN. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADES WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH MON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W THROUGH THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N62W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS EXTENDS INTO THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 28/0900 UTC ENTERS INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N66W TO E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N73W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AS IT CONTINUES ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N E OF THE FRONT TO 62W AND WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE ENTIRE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS E OF THE FRONT TO 45W ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 25N58W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 20N50W TO 17N51W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 90/120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 25N BETWEEN 27W-40W SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N27W AND EXTENDS ALONG 25N36W TO 22N43W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 21N51W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA EXTENDING FROM 28N22W TO THE COAST OF WESTERN SARAH NEAR 25N15W. THE COLD FRONT PORTION OF THE W ATLC FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA LATE TODAY THEN FROM 32N57W TO E CUBA FRI BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SAT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENTER THE W ATLC EARLY SAT AND MERGE WITH STATIONARY FRONT SUN. STRONG TO NEAR GALE W TO NW WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN SUN INTO MON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW