000 AXNT20 KNHC 280535 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU FEB 28 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC OVER LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W CONTINUING TO 3N14W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 2N19W 1N28W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 36W THEN INTO SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ E OF 20W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ BETWEEN 13W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS TO THE N GULF COAST WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER NW OHIO AND SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT AT 28/0300 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR CAILLOU BAY CONTINUING ALONG 26N96W THEN S TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. THE REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE SE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W ALONG 23N85W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM SE AND WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE FRONT. WEDGE BETWEEN THESE FRONTS IS A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 27N88W. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DRIFT SE THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE GULF AND REACH THE FAR SE GULF BY THU EVENING AS IT WEAKENS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO IS GIVING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SCATTERED SHOWERS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL PANAMA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. THE STATIONARY FRONT N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THU AS IT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN FRI. FRONT WILL REACH FROM E CUBA TO GULF OF HONDURAS SAT FOLLOWED BY STRONG N WINDS POSSIBLY TO GALE FORCE OVER A PORTION OF THE SW CARIBBEAN SUN. TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH MON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W THROUGH THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N64W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS EXTENDS A COLD FRONT AT 28/0300 UTC INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N69W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AS IT CONTINUES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N AND WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE ENTIRE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS E OF THE FRONT TO 50W ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 27N57W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 20N51W TO 15N50W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120/150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 26N BETWEEN 27W-43W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N30W AND EXTENDS ALONG 25N39W TO 22N51W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA EXTENDING FROM 29N23W TO 26N18W. THE COLD FRONT PORTION OF THE W ATLC FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA THU AFTERNOON THEN FROM 32N57W TO E CUBA FRI BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SAT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SAT AND MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW