000 AXNT20 KNHC 271110 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED FEB 27 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC OVER THE BORDER OF GUINEA AND SIERRA LEONE CONTINUING TO 5N20W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 32W THEN INTO SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 5N12W TO 2N24W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF THE IVORY COAST BETWEEN 4W-7W AND FROM 1N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 31W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS TO THE N GULF COAST AND COUPLED WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS GIVING THE GULF OF MEXICO SW FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 27/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA NEAR MIAMI THEN ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS TO 23N83W WHERE TI BECOMES STATIONARY AS IT MOVES INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM W OF THE FRONT. A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W GULF NEAR 26N91W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE COLD PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY TODAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TEXAS COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS GULF REACHING E GULF THU AND SE OF THE GULF THU NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N85W CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO INLAND OVER S BELIZE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND N OF THE FRONT IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN. THIS IS LEAVING THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE REINFORCED BY SECOND AND STRONGER COLD FRONT THU AS IT MOVES ACROSS NW CARIBBEAN FRI. THE MERGED FRONT REACH FROM E CUBA TO GULF OF HONDURAS SAT FOLLOWED BY STRONG N WINDS. TRADE WIND CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED AND WITH THE TRADE WINDS PERSISTING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N68W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS EXTENDS A COLD FRONT AT 27/0900 UTC THROUGH 32N75W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR MIAMI. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS E OF THE FRONT TO 60W ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH OVER NEAR 32N61W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 27N BETWEEN 33W-48W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N36W AND EXTENDS ALONG 26N44W TO 25N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. A REMNANT 1011 MB SURFACE LOW REMAINS OVER THE E ATLC NEAR 29N20W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 33N26W THROUGH THE LOW THEN E OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS TO INLAND OVER MOROCCO NEAR 28N13W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM FROM BERMUDA THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO W CUBA EARLY THU AND FROM 32N58W TO E CUBA EARLY FRI BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS W ATLC LATE SAT AND MERGE WITH STATIONARY FRONT SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW