000 AXNT20 KNHC 270559 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED FEB 27 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC OVER THE BORDER OF GUINEA AND GUINEA BISSAU CONTINUING ALONG 7N17W TO 3N20W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 1N26W ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-42W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 4N10W 5N18W TO 2N24W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 32W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS TO THE N GULF COAST AND COUPLED WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS GIVING THE GULF OF MEXICO SW FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 27/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE GULF JUST N OF NAPLES CONTINUING ALONG 24N84W INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR THE NW TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W GULF NEAR 26N95W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL SLOW OVER THE FAR SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT AND WED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST WED EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA REACHING THE E GULF THU THEN MOVE OUT OF THE GULF THU NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE E GULF OF MEXICO ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO INLAND OVER N BELIZE TO ACROSS GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN. THIS IS LEAVING THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT THEN WILL BE REINFORCED BY SECOND AND STRONGER COLD FRONT THU AND FRI. THE MERGED FRONT WILL REACH FROM E CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS SAT. TRADE WIND CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED AND WITH THE TRADE WINDS PERSISTING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N68W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS EXTENDS A COLD FRONT AT 27/0300 UTC THROUGH 32N77W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR VERO BEACH. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS E OF THE FRONT TO 58W ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 26N BETWEEN 33W-48W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N38W AND EXTENDS ALONG 26N46W TO 24N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. A REMNANT 1011 MB SURFACE LOW REMAINS OVER THE E ATLC NEAR 30N21W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING E OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS TO A SECOND 1011 MB LOW NEAR 30N10W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS NW FROM THE WESTERN MOST LOW TO BEYOND 32N25W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 32N74W TO S FLORIDA EARLY WED FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO W CUBA EARLY THU AND FROM 32N58W TO E CUBA EARLY FRI BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY AS IT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE SE ACROSS THE W ATLC LATE SAT AND MERGE WITH THE FIRST FRONT SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW