000 AXNT20 KNHC 261134 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC OVER GUINEA NEAR 10N15W CONTINUING TO 4N20W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 2N27W 1N35W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W INTO SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W TO 2N30W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 30W-40W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 3N40W TO 4N50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHARP UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE N GULF N OF 25N W OF 85N WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO MISSOURI AND SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF AT 26/0900 UTC FROM A 998 MB TRIPLE POINT LOW OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PENSACOLA ALONG 26N87W ACROSS THE NW TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE TO OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N95W. A SQUALL LINE PRECEDES THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM OVER FLORIDA INTO THE GULF WATERS NEAR APALACHICOLA BAY TO NEAR 27N87W WITH SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM E OF THE SQUALL LINE. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL POINT LOW ACROSS S GEORGIA INTO THE W ATLC. THE SOUTHERN SURFACE FLOW OVER THE FAR E GULF IS USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA BETWEEN FORT MYERS AND CEDAR KEY. COLD FRONT HAS BEGUN TO SLOW AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY THEN DRIFT SE THROUGH STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT AND WED. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TEXAS COAST LATE WED AND RACE ACROSS GULF THU MERGING WITH THE PREVIOUS FRONT AND THEN MOVING SE OF THE GULF FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BEING USHERED IN ON THE TRADE WINDS MAINLY E OF 82W LEAVING THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT THEN IS REINFORCED BY SECOND AND STRONGER COLD FRONT THU AND THEN WILL ENTER NW CARIBBEAN EARLY FRI. THE MERGED FRONTS WILL REACH FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE TO GULF OF HONDURAS SAT. TRADE WIND CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED AND WITH THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND N GULF OF MEXICO IS AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO BEYOND 32N75W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 30N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N46W AND EXTENDS ALONG 27N55W TO 26N64W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 27N75W TO OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N80W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS S GEORGIA INTO THE W ATLC JUST N OF THE FLORIDA BORDER TO 30N79W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 29N W OF 77W. THE AREA S OF THE FRONT W OF 60W REMAINS REMARKABLY CLEAR THIS MORNING. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE E ATLC NEAR 32N17W SUPPORTING A WEAKENING 1007 MB LOW NEAR 31N23W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 29N19W TO 24N21W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS BETWEEN THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT AND THE ABOVE SURFACE LOW WITH A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 27N37W. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT MOVES OFF NE FLORIDA COAST LATER THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT REACH FROM 32N73W TO S FLORIDA EARLY WED THEN FROM BERMUDA TO W CUBA EARLY THU AND FROM 32N57W TO E CUBA EARLY FRI AND STALL OVER AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW