000 AXNT20 KNHC 251801 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO 03N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N18W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W TO 02N45W TO 01N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-05N BETWEEN 35W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS NEAR 33N100W THAT SUPPORTS A PAIR OF FRONTS ANALYZED ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE TEXAS COAST NEAR GALVESTON TO NEW ORLEANS TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N83W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 29N E OF 90W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF SE ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND GEORGIA. THE OTHER FRONT...A COLD FRONT...AS OF 25/1500 UTC EXTENDS FROM THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 29N96W INTO THE NW GULF WATERS TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST NEAR 26N97W AND INLAND ACROSS NE MEXICO. LAND-BASED OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS AND A FEW SHIP AND OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS IN THE NW GULF SHOW STRONG N-NW WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING RAPIDLY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT. AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF WITH GALE FORCE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS N OF 26N WEST OF THE FRONT. LOOKING AHEAD...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE BASIN BY WEDNESDAY WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE WESTERN GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW IS OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING FOR OVERALL STABLE AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS THIS WITH VERY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE EVIDENT FROM 10N-20N. AT THE SURFACE...LITTLE MOISTURE IS NOTED...HOWEVER SCATTERED CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD WITHIN BRISK TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT. THE HIGHEST OF THESE WINDS ARE S OF 16N BETWEEN 70W-78W...AND WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED SYNOPTICALLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN A WEAKENED COLD FRONT APPROACHES WESTERN CUBA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND YUCATAN PENINSULA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC NEAR 40N58W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N57W EXTENDING W-SW TO 28N65W TO 28N74W AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST NEAR 28N81W. WITH MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS NORTH OF THE AREA...ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT...AND N OF 26N W OF 74W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT. FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES AND GENERALLY SUPPORTS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N40W. FINALLY...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 31N25W THAT SUPPORTS A 1005 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N27W AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 30N24W TO 25N25W TO 18N36W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 26N...AND WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 26N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN