000 AXNT20 KNHC 251126 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON FEB 25 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA THROUGH A 1008 MB LOW OVER SENEGAL ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N16W CONTINUING ALONG 7N15W TO 4N17W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 1N23W 2N40W THEN INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR THE EQUATOR AND 51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE ITCZ TO 5N BETWEEN 35W-52W. SMALL ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 6W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING S OVER TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE REMNANT WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 25/0900 UTC NEAR ORLANDO INTO THE GULF NEAR 29N83W THEN ACROSS SE LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90W TO ALONG THE THE TEXAS COAST NEAR MATAGORDA BAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST STATES E OF 92W. THIS IS GIVING THE S GULF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE N OF AREA TODAY. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND REACH FROM 30N89W TO 18N95W EARLY TONIGHT THEN FROM FLORIDA BIG BEND TO YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY TUE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SE OUT OF GULF WATERS WED AS REINFORCING SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TEXAS COAST AND RACES SE OF THE GULF BY THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN 74W-80W. LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 30 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. TRADE WIND CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC N OF 30N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC AT 25/0900 UTC NEAR 32N60W AND EXTENDS ALONG 30N65W TO 29N70W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 28N74W TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. THE FRONT BECOMES A WARM FRONT AS IT ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE FRONT W OF 76W. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB NEAR 26N47W. A NARROW DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N30W TO 20N20W AND SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION FROM A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 32N27W AND EXTENDS ALONG 24N27W TO 18N36W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG 27N LATER TODAY THEN LIFT BACK N AS WARM FRONT TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF SECOND COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA COAST TUE NIGHT. THIS SECOND COLD FRONT STALL ON FRI AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW