000 AXNT20 KNHC 250531 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON FEB 25 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W CONTINUING ALONG 4N15W TO 2N19W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 1N29W 2N38W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 44W AND 51W INTO SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 3N9W TO 1N14W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 38W-45W. SMALL ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 14W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERED THE GULF OF MEXICO...W ATLC AND CARIBBEAN LAST NIGHT HAS DAMPENED OUT GIVING THE GULF NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 25/0300 UTC AS A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR TAMPA TO 28N85W WHERE IT BECOMES A WARM FRONT DRIFTING N ALONG 29N90W TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST STATES E OF 95W. THIS IS GIVING THE S GULF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE N TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST AROUND SUNRISE MON. THIS COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE MON EVENING THEN EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TUE MORNING BEFORE SLOWING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SE GULF ON WED JUST AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND RACES SE OF THE GULF THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATED THE CARIBBEAN LAST NIGHT HAS DAMPENED OUT GIVING THE CARIBBEAN NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 75W-79W. LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 30 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. TRADE WIND CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC N OF 32N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC AT 25/0300 UTC NEAR 32N62W AND EXTENDS ALONG 29N71W TO 27N79W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AS IT ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND TAMPA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE FRONT W OF 79W. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB NEAR 28N50W. A NARROW DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N31W TO 20N25W AND SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N28W AND EXTENDS ALONG 24N31W TO 19N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE FAR E ATLC E OF THE ABOVE FRONT AND ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL STALL BRIEFLY ALONG 27N ON MON THEN LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT MON NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST TUE NIGHT. THIS STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY E EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA EARLY THU THEN STALL ON FRI AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW