000
AXNT20 KNHC 242338
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN FEB 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN GUINEA NEAR 11N15W INTO 
THE EAST TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 6N16W 3N22W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 
3N22W AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N35W EQ45W 1S49W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 38W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... THE NORTHERN GULF CONTINUES TO BE IMPACTED BY 
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN THERE FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS. AS 
OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM 
28N80W TO 27N84W BECOMING STATIONARY TO 27N87W WHERE IT 
TRANSITIONS INTO A WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTHER TEXAS COAST ALONG 
28N92W 27N97W. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW AREAS OF SCATTERED 
HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES UP 
TO 31N. THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREAS ARE ACROSS THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE AND SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST. EASTERLY WINDS OF 
MAINLY 15 KT ARE PRESENT NORTH OF THE AXIS AS WELL. SOUTH OF THE 
BOUNDARY...5-10 KT SE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE SW GULF WHILE 10-15 
KT S-SW WINDS COVER THE SE GULF. THE SOUTHERN GULF ALSO HAS 
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT COVERING THAT PORTION OF 
THE BASIN WITH MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT HAS LOST 
MUCH OF ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WELL EAST 
OF THE AREA. THE COLD PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO 
DRIFT EAST...WHILE THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND MERGE WITH 
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH WILL PRODUCE A COLD FRONT MOVING 
OFF THE TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE 
NORTHERN GULF FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FAIR CONDITIONS SPREAD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT 
COVERING THE ENTIRE BASIN AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ACROSS 
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE PRESENT WITH A FEW 
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN 
THE TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT. STRONGER WINDS ARE NOTED NEAR 
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA REACHING UP TO 30 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IS 
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 
THE COLD FRONT IMPACTING THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
MEXICO IS ALSO IMPACTING THE NW ATLC WITH A SMALL PORTION IN THE 
ATLC DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N72W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 
CAPE CANAVERAL AT 28N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH...AND 80 NM NORTH OF THE 
AXIS. THE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS 
THE NW ATLC WITH A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING 60W. THE REMAINDER OF 
THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLC IS COVERED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH 
AXIS ALONG 55W. THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH 
NEAR 28N55W...WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS 
AREA. TO THE EAST...A NARROW UPPER TROUGH ALONG 34W SUPPORTS A 
SECOND COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N32W AND CONTINUING 
ALONG 26N32W 20N41W 17N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE UP TO 220 NM EAST OF THE AXIS NORTH OF 29N 
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM EAST OF THE AXIS 
FROM 20N-29N. THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST ATLC IS DOMINATED BY 
SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 39N14W. THE RIDGE IS 
PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ATLC AND IS 
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 18W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON