000 AXNT20 KNHC 240545 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN FEB 24 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W CONTINUING TO 5N20W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 3N28W 1N37W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 44W INTO SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO THE EQUATOR E OF 4W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 13W-32W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 36W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS IN THE W ATLC IS GIVING THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. AN SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS RAPIDLY MOVING NE AWAY FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF EXTENDING FROM A 1010 MB LOW OVER SW GEORGIA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN PANAMA CITY AND PENSACOLA ALONG 28N90W ALONG 24N95W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 27N86W ACROSS NE FLORIDA NEAR CEDAR KEY TO JACKSONVILLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL MOVE E AS A COLD FRONT TONIGHT REACHING FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO 26N90W TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY SUN THEN STALL SUN AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO LIFT BACK N AS WARM FRONT LATE SUN. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST AROUND EARLY MON AND REACH FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE MON THEN FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AROUND EARLY TUE AND MOVE SE OF THE GULF TUE NIGHT. A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL OFF THE TEXAS COAST WED AND RACE SE OF THE GULF EARLY THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE CARIBBEAN WITH NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS PRODUCING STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 76W-81W AND WITHIN 30 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND S NICARAGUA. SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 60W-67W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. TRADE WIND CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUN. MAINLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADES WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO BEYOND 32N70W COVERING THE AREA W OF 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N63W. THIS RIDGE IS SHIFTING SE AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING OFF THE SE CONUS COAST. A NARROW DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N42W TO 21N43W AND SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N35W AND EXTENDS ALONG 24N42W TO 20N53W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 18N18W TO BEYOND 32N20W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC E OF THE ABOVE FRONT AND ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH ABOUT 450 NM E OF THE AZORES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST AROUND SUNRISE SUN. THIS FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA SUN NIGHT THEN LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT ON MON AHEAD OF A SECOND COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST ON TUE AFTERNOON. THIS SECOND FRONT WILL STALL FROM 32N67W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ON WED WITH REMNANTS OF THE FRONT LIFTING N ON THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW