000 AXNT20 KNHC 231802 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT FEB 23 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 06N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N17W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 36W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 15W-35W...AND WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W TO 06N51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WITH A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS S-SW OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN CENTERED OVER NORTH TEXAS THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W TO SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION NEAR 29N90W. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS FROM 29N90W TO 26N95W TO A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N96W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FRONT REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT AS A RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC REMAINS IN PLACE WITH AXIS ALONG 24N. THE RIDGING WILL SLOWLY RETREAT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT N OF 26N MOVES ACROSS THE NE GULF...THEN STALLS BY EARLY SUNDAY TURNING STATIONARY BRIEFLY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS AND WILL EVENTUALLY INTRODUCE THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS ON MONDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON CENTERED NEAR 18N76W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGING WHICH IS PROVIDING OVERALL TRANQUIL WEATHER. EASTERLY TRADES PERSIST UNDER THIS ATMOSPHERIC REGIME IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT...WITH THE STRONGER WINDS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COLOMBIA COAST WHERE A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. THIS OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE SNYOPTICALLY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 74W THAT SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N68W. THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY N OF 18N W OF 58W WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW CORNER AS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N80W TO THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 32N81W IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 31N W OF 72W. FARTHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A DEEP-LAYERED STORM FORCE 969 MB LOW IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 41N45W THAT EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA NEAR 32N39W. THE FRONT EXTENDS SW ALONG 28N42W TO 23N50W TO 21N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 24N AND WITHIN 240 NM WEST OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LOCATED ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT S OF 31N AS NOTED IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST. THE MAIN LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NE WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN ATLC BY EARLY SUNDAY. FINALLY...THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED S-SE OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N20W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN