000 AXNT20 KNHC 231135 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT FEB 23 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS GUINEA BISSAU NEAR 11N15W CONTINUING TO 5N18W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 1N25W TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 35W INTO SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 17W-42W AND FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 42W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS IN THE W ATLC IS GIVING THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE NW GULF EXTENDING FROM A 1012 MB LOW OVER MOBILE ALABAMA ACROSS FAR SE LOUISIANA ALONG 27N94W TO OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITHIN 75 NM W OF THE FRONT FROM OVER SE LOUISIANA TO OVER S MISSISSIPPI AND S ALABAMA. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT OVER THE GULF WATERS. THIS IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SE LATE TODAY THEN REACH AND STALL FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE TONIGHT. REMNANTS OF THIS FRONT WILL LIFT N AS WARM FRONT SUN. SECOND COLD FRONT MOVE OFF TEXAS COAST EARLY MON WITH GALE FORCE WINDS W OF OF THE FRONT AND REACH FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY TUE AND MOVE SE OF THE GULF AREA TUE NIGHT. THIRD COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NW WATERS WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM VENEZUELA ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO THE W ATLC DOMINATING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS PRODUCING STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 76W-81W AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF 11N W OF 81W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. TRADE WIND CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MON. MAINLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADES WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO BEYOND 32N76W COVERING THE AREA W OF 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH MIDWAY BETWEEN BERMUDA AND NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N47W TO 17N45W AND SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N42W AND EXTENDS ALONG 26N49W TO 23N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT E OF 48W. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 24W FROM 20N TO BEYOND 32N. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC E OF THE ABOVE FRONT AND ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND THE AZORES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA COAST LATE TONIGHT REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE SUN. REMNANTS OF THIS FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO WARM FRONT AND LIFT N BY MON AHEAD OF SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING OFF NE FLORIDA COAST TUE. THIS FRONT WILL STALL FROM 32N67W TO FLORIDA STRAITS BY WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW