000
AXNT20 KNHC 230536
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT FEB 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC ACROSS LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO 5N13W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES 
ALONG 2N23W TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 37W INTO SOUTH AMERICA. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 
FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 16W-44W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS IN THE W ATLC IS GIVING THE GULF SW 
FLOW ALOFT. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE N GULF 
EXTENDING FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF 
LOUISIANA ALONG 28N93W TO TAMPICO MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED WITHIN 90 NM NW 
OF THE FRONT AND STREAM ENE FROM THE NW GULF TO OVER E LOUISIANA 
CONTINUING OVER MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. SCATTERED SHOWERS DOT 
THE REMAINDER OF THE N GULF COAST STATES INCLUDING THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE AND WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE FRONT. THIS IS GIVING THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE STATIONARY 
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THEN STALL AGAIN 
FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE ON SAT 
NIGHT. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT ON SUN. 
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST MON AND REACH 
FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TUE MORNING THEN 
MOVE SE OF THE GULF TUE NIGHT. A THIRD COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE 
NW GULF ON WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM VENEZUELA ACROSS 
HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC DOMINATING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND 
DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SURFACE 
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS PRODUCING STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ALONG COAST OF 
COLOMBIA. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED 
SHOWERS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N BETWEEN 76W-80W AND WITHIN 
45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA. THIS IS LEAVING THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. 
TRADE WIND CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST 
THROUGH EARLY MON. MAINLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADES WILL PERSIST 
ELSEWHERE THROUGH WED. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS 
HISPANIOLA TO BEYOND 32N76W COVERING THE AREA W OF 60W. A 
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH 
OFF NORTH CAROLINA. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL 
ATLC WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N47W TO 
17N46W AND SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 
32N45W AND EXTENDS ALONG 27N50W TO 23N60W. A SURFACE TROUGH 
PRECEDES THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 25N49W TO 21N54W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM E OF THE FRONT E OF 50W. A SECOND 
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 25W 
FROM 20N TO BEYOND 32N. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC E 
OF THE ABOVE FRONT AND ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 33N23W. A 
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE SAT NIGHT 
REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA SUN EVENING. REMNANTS 
OF THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO A WARM FRONT AND LIFT N ON MON 
AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST ON 
TUE THAT STALLS FROM 32N67W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW