000
AXNT20 KNHC 220548
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI FEB 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS AFRICA AND ENTERS THE E 
TROPICAL ATLC BY SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W AND EXTENDS TO 7N17W. 
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N17W TO 3N22W EQ30W EQ40W EQ46W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-10N BETWEEN 7W AND 52W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW GULF EXTENDING FROM 
29N93W 27N95W TO SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR 26N97W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
SKIES ARE N OF 25N WEST OF 90W ASSOCIATED TO THE COLD FRONT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY CONCENTRATED WEST OF THE 
FRONT AT THIS TIME. SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT 
SPREADS OVER THE BASIN S AND E OF THE FRONT ADVECTING WARM AND 
MOIST AIR TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. S OF 25N CLEAR SKIES ARE 
BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. IN THE COURSE 
OF 24 HOURS...THE PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT INLAND WILL DISPLACE 
EASTWARD FASTER THAN THE TAIL END OF IT OVER THE GULF BEING 
ASSISTED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY FLOW 
ASSOCIATED WITH A 110-150 KT JETSTREAM. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL 
CONTINUE E AND S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE EXTENDING 
APPROXIMATELY FROM LOUISIANA TO MATAMOROS MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS 
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 25N. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
EASTERLY TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND 
EASTERN CARIBBEAN REGIONS WHILE LIGHTER WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 
10-15 KT DOMINATE OVER THE WESTERN REGION. IN THE SOUTHERN 
CARIBBEAN S OF 13N WINDS OF 20-25 KT DOMINATE. NEARLY WESTERLY 
FLOW AND VERY DRY AIR CONTINUE IN THE UPPER LEVELS THUS 
SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE 
COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-77W. ELSEWHERE 
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
IN THE WEST ATLC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N55W TO 27N60W 
25N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED TO THIS FRONT ARE N OF 27N 
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 51W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE CENTRAL 
AND EASTERN ATLC N OF 20N ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH LOCATED 
NEAR 29N35W. E OF THE HIGH...A SURFACE TROUGH REMNANT OF THE 
TAIL OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE E ATLANTIC 
FROM 31N15W TO 28N18W. EXCEPT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED 
REGIONS...VERY DRY AIR COVERS ALMOST THE ENTIRE REGION IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS WHICH IS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE 
IN THE ATLC. IN 24 HOURS...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR