000 AXNT20 KNHC 211742 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU FEB 21 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N11W TO 03N23W TO 01N32W TO 01N38W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 08W-16W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N BETWEEN 15W-43W...AND FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 43W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON THAT SUPPORTS A 1001 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER NORTH TEXAS NEAR 32N99W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA BORDER AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TO 28N86W. SOUTH- SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE NOTED SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NE TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT AND PRIMARILY REMAIN ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND EASTERN TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING NE OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE NW GULF. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD...BUT BY LATE SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE SW GULF. THEREAFTER...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO STALL AND LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ONCE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER A MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON CENTERED NEAR 17N74W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGING WHICH IS PROVIDING OVERALL TRANQUIL WEATHER. EASTERLY TRADES PERSIST UNDER THIS ATMOSPHERIC REGIME IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT...WITH THE STRONGER WINDS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COLOMBIA COAST S OF 16N BETWEEN 69W-80W. THIS OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN. WHILE WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS NOTED N OF 26N W OF 70W...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N60W AND EXTENDS SW TO 26N69W WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF PRIMARILY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N42W. THE ONLY COMPROMISE TO THE SURFACE RIDGE IS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N16W TO 27N32W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN