000 AXNT20 KNHC 211105 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU FEB 21 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1105 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXITS THE AFRICAN WEST COAST NEAR 6N11W AND EXTENDS TO 4N15W IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N16W TO 1N23W EQ30W TO EQ48W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S TO 5N BETWEEN 17W-50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 70 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0900 UTC...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA NEAR 25N81W THEN WESTWARD TO 25N84W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW GULF ALONG 25N84W 26N89W 28N92W 29N94W. IN THE NW AND N-CENTRAL GULF N OF 24N WEST OF 87W BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS. MOISTURE ADVECTION BY SOUTHERLY FLOW AS WELL AS MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE EAST PACIFIC IS SUPPORTING THE RAINSHOWERS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION. THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE BASIN ARE FOUND OVER THE WESTERN GULF WEST OF 90W AND RANGE FROM 20-25 KT WHILE ELSEWHERE WINDS OF 15 KT DOMINATE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL AS OVER THE NE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...STRONG ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS ASSOCIATED TO A 70-110 KT JET N OF 25N. WITHIN 24 HOURS...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE DISPLACING THE WARM FRONT N TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHILE A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW GULF EXTENDING ACROSS LOUISIANA. RAINSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NW AND N-CENTRAL GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN REGIONS WHILE WINDS OF 15 KT DOMINATE OVER THE WESTERN REGION. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-30 KT ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST. NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW AND VERY DRY AIR CONTINUE IN THE UPPER LEVELS SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION IN THE ENTIRE BASIN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 0900 UTC AND IN THE WEST ATLC...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS WESTWARD ACROSS S FLORIDA TO 25N84W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A WARM FRONT STRETCHING OVER THE GULF WATERS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER S FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS. A SURFACE PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 28N67W 25N70W TO 22N73W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO IT. SURFACE RIDGING N OF 22N DOMINATES THE CENTRAL...EASTERN AND THE W ATLC E OF 63W ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 28N41W. WEST OF THE HIGH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 48W AND 70W. E OF THE HIGH...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 30N22W 28N28W TO 27N35W WITH NO CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED IT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR COVERING ALMOST THE ENTIRE REGION WHICH CONTINUE FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLC. IN 24 HOURS...A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC MOVES N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WHILE THE FRONT IN THE E ATLC DISSIPATES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR